US stock / ETF

Royal Caribbean Group

RCL · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish73%
4h Downside probability 73%Bearish

RCL 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $288.13 and stabilize above resistance $315.36.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $315.36 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 43.5, MACD 0.699

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $4.89 (1.72%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$286.59Bearish
EMA 21$288.13Bearish
EMA 50$293.61Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 43.5 · MACD 0.699

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.89 · BB 6.25%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 37.9 · OBV -2.19%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$273.25 - $315.36

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+12.56% · 7.3 ATR above latest close

$320.25
Nearest resistance

+10.85% · 6.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$315.36
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$284.5
Nearest support

-3.95% · 2.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$273.25
Deeper support zone

-5.67% · 3.3 ATR below latest close

$268.36
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$279.61 - $289.39

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $294.34, invalidation $281.17

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

28.1 / 37.8 / 18.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$266.33Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$288.34 / $303.32Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

43%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.89 (1.72%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 6.25%

43%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$299.58 / $276.29Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$279.61 / $289.39Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$315.36Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$273.25Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.699Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

18.2 / 24.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-81.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-31.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-2.19%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.79xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $294.34, invalidation $281.17

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

28.1 / 37.8 / 18.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$266.33Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$288.34 / $303.32Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

43%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.699Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

18.2 / 24.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-81.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-31.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.89 (1.72%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 6.25%

43%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$299.58 / $276.29Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$279.61 / $289.39Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-2.19%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.79xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$315.36Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$273.25Range

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