US stock / ETF

Royal Caribbean Group

RCL · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish60%
Monthly Downside probability 60%Bearish

RCL 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $269.26 and stabilize above resistance $366.5.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $366.5 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 50.6, MACD -9.125

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $55.05 (21.16%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$285.76Bearish
EMA 21$269.26Bearish
EMA 50$212.7Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 50.6 · MACD -9.125

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $55.05 · BB 53.51%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 47.1 · OBV 35.83%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$107.1 - $366.5

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+62.05% · 2.9 ATR above latest close

$421.55
Nearest resistance

+40.89% · 1.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$366.5
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$260.14
Nearest support

-58.83% · 2.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$107.1
Deeper support zone

-79.99% · 3.8 ATR below latest close

$52.05
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$205.09 - $315.19

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $232.1, invalidation $356.39

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

18.6 / 15.4 / 21.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$95.2Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$271.27 / $198.8Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

47%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$55.05 (21.16%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 53.51%

34%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$384.15 / $158.59Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$205.09 / $315.19Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$366.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$107.1Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

50.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-9.125Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

20.9 / 38.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-79.1Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-46.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

47.1Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

35.83%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.30xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $232.1, invalidation $356.39

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

18.6 / 15.4 / 21.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$95.2Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$271.27 / $198.8Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

47%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

50.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-9.125Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

20.9 / 38.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-79.1Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-46.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$55.05 (21.16%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 53.51%

34%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$384.15 / $158.59Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$205.09 / $315.19Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

47.1Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

35.83%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.30xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$366.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$107.1Range

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