US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 dayBearish83%
Daily Downside probability 83%Bearish

BABA 1D chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Daily: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $110.35 and stabilize above resistance $130.62.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $130.62 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Daily
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 36.0, MACD -0.217

Daily
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $2.75 (2.6%)

Daily

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$107.83Bearish
EMA 21$110.35Bearish
EMA 50$113.69Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 36.0 · MACD -0.217

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.75 · BB 9.65%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 44.3 · OBV -8.81%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$105 - $130.62

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+26% · 10.0 ATR above latest close

$133.37
Nearest resistance

+23.4% · 9.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$130.62
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$105.85
Nearest support

-0.8% · 0.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$105
Deeper support zone

-3.4% · 1.3 ATR below latest close

$102.25
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$103.1 - $108.6

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $106.64, invalidation $109.6

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

13.1 / 31.5 / 35.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$97.98Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$110.67 / $118Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

6%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$2.75 (2.6%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 9.65%

15%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$115.51 / $104.84Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$103.1 / $108.6Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$130.62Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$105Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.217Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

5.5 / 5.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-94.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-126.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-8.81%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.18xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $106.64, invalidation $109.6

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

13.1 / 31.5 / 35.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$97.98Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$110.67 / $118Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

6%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.217Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

5.5 / 5.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-94.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-126.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$2.75 (2.6%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 9.65%

15%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$115.51 / $104.84Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$103.1 / $108.6Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-8.81%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.18xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$130.62Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$105Range

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