US stock / ETF

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

ULTA · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish79%
4h Downside probability 79%Bearish

ULTA 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $544.79 and stabilize above resistance $564.12.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $564.12 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 48.3, MACD -0.507

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $6.17 (1.13%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$542.84Bullish
EMA 21$544.79Bearish
EMA 50$545.12Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 48.3 · MACD -0.507

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $6.17 · BB 3.33%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 48.6 · OBV 0.41%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$534.05 - $564.12

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+4.89% · 4.3 ATR above latest close

$570.29
Nearest resistance

+3.76% · 3.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$564.12
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$543.69
Nearest support

-1.77% · 1.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$534.05
Deeper support zone

-2.91% · 2.6 ATR below latest close

$527.88
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$537.52 - $549.86

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $535.25, invalidation $551.96

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

19.7 / 25.5 / 15.5Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$524.94Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$546.13 / $545.72Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

42%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$6.17 (1.13%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.33%

40%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$557.19 / $532.2Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$537.52 / $549.86Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$564.12Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$534.05Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.507Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

39.2 / 36.5Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-60.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-44.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

48.6Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

0.41%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.22xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $535.25, invalidation $551.96

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

19.7 / 25.5 / 15.5Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$524.94Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$546.13 / $545.72Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

42%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.507Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

39.2 / 36.5Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-60.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-44.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$6.17 (1.13%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.33%

40%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$557.19 / $532.2Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$537.52 / $549.86Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

48.6Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

0.41%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.22xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$564.12Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$534.05Range

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