US stock / ETF

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

ULTA · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish62%
4h Downside probability 62%Bearish

ULTA 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $653.44 and stabilize above resistance $674.04.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $674.04 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 49.7, MACD -2.010

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $7.7 (1.18%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$654.72Bearish
EMA 21$653.44Bearish
EMA 50$640.75Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 49.7 · MACD -2.010

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $7.7 · BB 4.97%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 68.9 · OBV -2.83%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$625.66 - $674.04

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+4.73% · 4.0 ATR above latest close

$681.74
Nearest resistance

+3.54% · 3.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$674.04
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$650.97
Nearest support

-3.89% · 3.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$625.66
Deeper support zone

-5.07% · 4.3 ATR below latest close

$617.96
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$643.27 - $658.67

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $649.52, invalidation $660.97

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.2 / 28.7 / 26.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$631.28Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$653.97 / $639.99Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

37%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$7.7 (1.18%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.97%

34%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$666.41 / $641.05Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$643.27 / $658.67Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$674.04Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$625.66Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.010Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.7 / 37.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-57.4Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

68.9Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-2.83%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.86xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $649.52, invalidation $660.97

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.2 / 28.7 / 26.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$631.28Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$653.97 / $639.99Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

37%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.010Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.7 / 37.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-57.4Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$7.7 (1.18%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.97%

34%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$666.41 / $641.05Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$643.27 / $658.67Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

68.9Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-2.83%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.86xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$674.04Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$625.66Range

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