US stock / ETF

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

ULTA · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish65%
Weekly Downside probability 65%Bearish

ULTA 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $511.75 and stabilize above resistance $714.97.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $714.97 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is above EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBullish
Momentum improving

RSI 51.6, MACD 3.651

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $33.39 (6.34%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$495.84Bullish
EMA 21$511.75Bullish
EMA 50$521.52Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 51.6 · MACD 3.651

Neutral zone

Strength
Bullish
Volatility
ATR $33.39 · BB 24.12%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 33.2 · OBV -5.65%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$443.6 - $714.97

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+42.15% · 6.6 ATR above latest close

$748.36
Nearest resistance

+35.81% · 5.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$714.97
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$526.44
Nearest support

-15.74% · 2.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$443.6
Deeper support zone

-22.08% · 3.5 ATR below latest close

$410.21
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$493.05 - $559.83

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $443.6, invalidation $493.98

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

48.1 / 18.8 / 26.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$425.66Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$534.14 / $579.28Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

61%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$33.39 (6.34%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 24.12%

70%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$576.48 / $444.23Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$493.05 / $559.83Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$714.97Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$443.6Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

51.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

3.651Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

83.2 / 55.6Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Overbought zone

-16.8Bearish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

58.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

33.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-5.65%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.21xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $443.6, invalidation $493.98

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

48.1 / 18.8 / 26.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$425.66Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$534.14 / $579.28Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

61%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

51.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

3.651Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

83.2 / 55.6Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Overbought zone

-16.8Bearish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

58.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$33.39 (6.34%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 24.12%

70%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$576.48 / $444.23Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$493.05 / $559.83Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

33.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-5.65%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.21xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$714.97Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$443.6Range

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