US stock / ETF

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

ULTA · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish92%
Weekly Downside probability 92%Bearish

ULTA 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $512.54 and stabilize above resistance $714.97.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $714.97 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 39.6, MACD -6.045

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $33.73 (7.19%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$478.67Bearish
EMA 21$512.54Bearish
EMA 50$523.14Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 39.6 · MACD -6.045

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $33.73 · BB 34.15%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 30.7 · OBV -22.06%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$443.6 - $714.97

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+59.6% · 8.3 ATR above latest close

$748.7
Nearest resistance

+52.41% · 7.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$714.97
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$469.12
Nearest support

-5.44% · 0.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$443.6
Deeper support zone

-12.63% · 1.8 ATR below latest close

$409.87
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$435.39 - $502.85

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $443.6, invalidation $493.98

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

51.3 / 13.8 / 32.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$369.04Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$532.29 / $579.28Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

11%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$33.73 (7.19%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 34.15%

25%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$579.03 / $442.35Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$435.39 / $502.85Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$714.97Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$443.6Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

39.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-6.045Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

18.9 / 17.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-81.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-84.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

30.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-22.06%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.06xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $443.6, invalidation $493.98

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

51.3 / 13.8 / 32.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$369.04Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$532.29 / $579.28Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

11%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

39.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-6.045Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

18.9 / 17.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-81.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-84.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$33.73 (7.19%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 34.15%

25%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$579.03 / $442.35Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$435.39 / $502.85Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

30.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-22.06%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.06xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$714.97Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$443.6Range

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