US stock / ETF

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

SMCI · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish74%
Monthly Downside probability 74%Bearish

SMCI 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $36.37 and stabilize above resistance $122.9.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $122.9 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.9, MACD -1.578

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $12.71 (45.95%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$32.57Bearish
EMA 21$36.37Bearish
EMA 50$32.36Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.9 · MACD -1.578

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $12.71 · BB 104.65%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 49.2 · OBV 40.92%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$17.25 - $122.9

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+390.24% · 8.5 ATR above latest close

$135.61
Nearest resistance

+344.3% · 7.5 ATR above · 34-bar high

$122.9
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$27.66
Nearest support

-37.64% · 0.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$17.25
Deeper support zone

-83.59% · 1.8 ATR below latest close

$4.54
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$14.95 - $40.37

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $19.48, invalidation $62.36

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

17.1 / 26.7 / 21.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$9.8Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$47.79 / $63.16Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$12.71 (45.95%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 104.65%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$60.99 / $11.51Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$14.95 / $40.37Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$122.9Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$17.25Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.578Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

19.1 / 34.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-80.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-98.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

49.2Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

40.92%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.27xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $19.48, invalidation $62.36

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

17.1 / 26.7 / 21.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$9.8Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$47.79 / $63.16Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.578Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

19.1 / 34.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-80.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-98.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$12.71 (45.95%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 104.65%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$60.99 / $11.51Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$14.95 / $40.37Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

49.2Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

40.92%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.27xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$122.9Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$17.25Range

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