US stock / ETF

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

SMCI · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish78%
Monthly Downside probability 78%Bearish

SMCI 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $35.64 and stabilize above resistance $122.9.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $122.9 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.9, MACD -1.511

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $12.4 (44.7%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$31.63Bearish
EMA 21$35.64Bearish
EMA 50$32.2Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.9 · MACD -1.511

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $12.4 · BB 105.74%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 41.7 · OBV 95.38%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$17.25 - $122.9

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+387.57% · 8.7 ATR above latest close

$135.3
Nearest resistance

+342.87% · 7.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$122.9
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$27.75
Nearest support

-37.84% · 0.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$17.25
Deeper support zone

-82.54% · 1.8 ATR below latest close

$4.85
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$15.35 - $40.16

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $19.48, invalidation $51.4

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

16.7 / 25.8 / 22.9Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$7.53Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$46.11 / $63.3Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$12.4 (44.7%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 105.74%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$59.32 / $11.7Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$15.35 / $40.16Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$122.9Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$17.25Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.511Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

19.3 / 21.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-80.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-85.2Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

41.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

95.38%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.02xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $19.48, invalidation $51.4

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

16.7 / 25.8 / 22.9Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$7.53Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$46.11 / $63.3Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.511Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

19.3 / 21.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-80.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-85.2Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$12.4 (44.7%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 105.74%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$59.32 / $11.7Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$15.35 / $40.16Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

41.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

95.38%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.02xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$122.9Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$17.25Range

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