US stock / ETF

NVR, Inc.

NVR · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish79%
Monthly Downside probability 79%Bearish

NVR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $7,124.6 and stabilize above resistance $9,964.8.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $9,964.8 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 44.0, MACD -196.285

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $819.18 (12.6%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$6,789.8Bearish
EMA 21$7,124.6Bearish
EMA 50$6,678.8Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 44.0 · MACD -196.285

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $819.18 · BB 31.60%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 61.9 · OBV -36.70%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$5,210.5 - $9,964.8

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+65.82% · 5.2 ATR above latest close

$10,784
Nearest resistance

+53.22% · 4.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$9,964.8
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$6,503.5
Nearest support

-19.88% · 1.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$5,210.5
Deeper support zone

-32.48% · 2.6 ATR below latest close

$4,391.3
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$5,684.3 - $7,322.7

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $5,501, invalidation $8,200

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

24.9 / 18.6 / 25.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$4,002Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$7,291.7 / $6,770.4Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

27%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$819.18 (12.6%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 31.60%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$8,846.8 / $5,392.1Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$5,684.3 / $7,322.7Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$9,964.8Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$5,210.5Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-196.285Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

32.2 / 31.2Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-67.8Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-112.4Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

61.9Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-36.70%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.31xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $5,501, invalidation $8,200

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

24.9 / 18.6 / 25.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$4,002Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$7,291.7 / $6,770.4Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

27%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-196.285Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

32.2 / 31.2Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-67.8Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-112.4Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$819.18 (12.6%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 31.60%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$8,846.8 / $5,392.1Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$5,684.3 / $7,322.7Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

61.9Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-36.70%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.31xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$9,964.8Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$5,210.5Range

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