US stock / ETF

Arch Capital Group Ltd.

ACGL · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish84%
4h Downside probability 84%Bearish

ACGL 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $99.75 and stabilize above resistance $101.5.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $101.5 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.0, MACD -0.232

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $0.6946 (0.7%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$99.65Bearish
EMA 21$99.75Bearish
EMA 50$99.6Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.0 · MACD -0.232

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $0.6946 · BB 3.56%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 26.2 · OBV -25.45%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$97.81 - $101.5

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.47% · 4.9 ATR above latest close

$102.19
Nearest resistance

+2.77% · 3.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$101.5
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$98.76
Nearest support

-0.96% · 1.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$97.81
Deeper support zone

-1.67% · 2.4 ATR below latest close

$97.12
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$98.07 - $99.45

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $98.51, invalidation $101.38

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

49.7 / 31.4 / 31.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$96.88Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$99.85 / $99.22Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

22%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.6946 (0.7%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.56%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$101.05 / $98.48Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$98.07 / $99.45Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$101.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$97.81Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.232Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.4 / 12.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-94.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

26.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-25.45%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.36xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $98.51, invalidation $101.38

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

49.7 / 31.4 / 31.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$96.88Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$99.85 / $99.22Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

22%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.232Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.4 / 12.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-94.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.6946 (0.7%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.56%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$101.05 / $98.48Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$98.07 / $99.45Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

26.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-25.45%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.36xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$101.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$97.81Range

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