US stock / ETF

Arch Capital Group Ltd.

ACGL · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBullish65%
4h Upside probability 65%Bullish

ACGL 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Hold above $97.92 and reclaim $104.64.

Invalidation Trigger

Lose $97.92 and MACD turns lower again.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is above EMA21

4h
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 53.5, MACD -0.034

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.2 (1.18%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$100.9Bullish
EMA 21$100.79Bullish
EMA 50$99.48Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 53.5 · MACD -0.034

Neutral zone

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $1.2 · BB 5.23%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 48.6 · OBV 5.35%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$97.92 - $104.64

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+4.43% · 3.7 ATR above latest close

$105.84
Nearest resistance

+3.25% · 2.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$104.64
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$101.35
Nearest support

-3.38% · 2.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$97.92
Deeper support zone

-4.56% · 3.9 ATR below latest close

$96.72
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$100.15 - $102.55

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $97.92, invalidation $102.88

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

21.8 / 30.3 / 32.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$97.64Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$100.83 / $98.7Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

64%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.2 (1.18%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 5.23%

58%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$103.29 / $98.33Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$100.15 / $102.55Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$104.64Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$97.92Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

53.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.034Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

64.1 / 72.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-35.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

28.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

48.6Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

5.35%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.38xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $97.92, invalidation $102.88

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

21.8 / 30.3 / 32.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$97.64Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$100.83 / $98.7Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

64%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

53.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.034Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

64.1 / 72.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-35.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

28.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.2 (1.18%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 5.23%

58%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$103.29 / $98.33Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$100.15 / $102.55Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

48.6Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

5.35%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.38xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$104.64Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$97.92Range

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