US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 dayBearish56%
Daily Downside probability 56%Bearish

PGR 1D chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Daily: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $216.88 and stabilize above resistance $239.38.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $239.38 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Daily
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.2, MACD -3.386

Daily
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $6.62 (3.18%)

Daily

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$215.01Bearish
EMA 21$216.88Bearish
EMA 50$211.81Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.2 · MACD -3.386

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $6.62 · BB 18.02%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 39.2 · OBV 5.38%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$189.69 - $239.38

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+18.3% · 5.7 ATR above latest close

$246
Nearest resistance

+15.11% · 4.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$239.38
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$207.95
Nearest support

-8.78% · 2.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$189.69
Deeper support zone

-11.96% · 3.8 ATR below latest close

$183.07
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$201.33 - $214.57

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $233.99, invalidation $203.08

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

57.1 / 25.6 / 37.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$188.67Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$220.01 / $214.29Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

13%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$6.62 (3.18%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 18.02%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$230.9 / $203.18Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$201.33 / $214.57Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$239.38Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$189.69Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.2Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.386Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.4 / 11.5Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-97.5Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

39.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

5.38%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.10xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $233.99, invalidation $203.08

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

57.1 / 25.6 / 37.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$188.67Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$220.01 / $214.29Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

13%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.2Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.386Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.4 / 11.5Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-97.5Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$6.62 (3.18%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 18.02%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$230.9 / $203.18Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$201.33 / $214.57Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

39.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

5.38%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.10xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$239.38Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$189.69Range

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