US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 dayBearish63%
Daily Downside probability 63%Bearish

PGR 1D chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Daily: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $211.86 and stabilize above resistance $225.45.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $225.45 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is above EMA21

Daily
Momentum StateBullish
Momentum improving

RSI 52.9, MACD 0.553

Daily
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $4.15 (1.94%)

Daily

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$211.09Bullish
EMA 21$211.86Bullish
EMA 50$213.07Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 52.9 · MACD 0.553

Neutral zone

Strength
Bullish
Volatility
ATR $4.15 · BB 10.24%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 38.9 · OBV -11.51%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$200.96 - $225.45

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+7.23% · 3.7 ATR above latest close

$229.6
Nearest resistance

+5.29% · 2.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$225.45
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$214.12
Nearest support

-6.15% · 3.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$200.96
Deeper support zone

-8.09% · 4.2 ATR below latest close

$196.81
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$209.97 - $218.27

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $200.96, invalidation $221.57

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

34.6 / 20.4 / 25.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$203.2Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$210.91 / $213.2Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

64%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.15 (1.94%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 10.24%

60%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$218.76 / $204.77Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$209.97 / $218.27Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$225.45Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$200.96Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

52.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.553Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

89.6 / 68.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Overbought zone

-10.4Bearish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

29.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 7Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-11.51%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.52xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $200.96, invalidation $221.57

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

34.6 / 20.4 / 25.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$203.2Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$210.91 / $213.2Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

64%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

52.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.553Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

89.6 / 68.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Overbought zone

-10.4Bearish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

29.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 7Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.15 (1.94%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 10.24%

60%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$218.76 / $204.77Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$209.97 / $218.27Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-11.51%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.52xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$225.45Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$200.96Range

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