US stock / ETF

Arch Capital Group Ltd.

ACGL · NASDAQ · USD

1 hourBearish92%
1h Downside probability 92%Bearish

ACGL 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $99.7 and stabilize above resistance $101.5.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $101.5 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 33.5, MACD -0.188

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $0.3177 (0.32%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$99.1Bearish
EMA 21$99.7Bearish
EMA 50$99.85Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 33.5 · MACD -0.188

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $0.3177 · BB 3.68%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 44.8 · OBV -15.44%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$98.51 - $101.5

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.09% · 9.6 ATR above latest close

$101.81
Nearest resistance

+2.77% · 8.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$101.5
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$98.76
Nearest support

-0.25% · 0.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$98.51
Deeper support zone

-0.57% · 1.8 ATR below latest close

$98.19
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$98.44 - $99.08

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $101.38, invalidation $98.51

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

35.7 / 6.3 / 61.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$97.67Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$99.68 / $99.75Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

9%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.3177 (0.32%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.68%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$100.42 / $98.92Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$98.44 / $99.08Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$101.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$98.51Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

33.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.188Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

10.3 / 13.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-89.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-95.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-15.44%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

3.30xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $101.38, invalidation $98.51

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

35.7 / 6.3 / 61.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$97.67Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$99.68 / $99.75Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

9%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

33.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.188Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

10.3 / 13.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-89.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-95.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.3177 (0.32%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.68%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$100.42 / $98.92Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$98.44 / $99.08Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-15.44%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

3.30xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$101.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$98.51Range

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