US stock / ETF

Arch Capital Group Ltd.

ACGL · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish58%
Weekly Downside probability 58%Bearish

ACGL 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $96.66 and stabilize above resistance $107.09.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $107.09 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 46.2, MACD -0.688

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $3.88 (4.09%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$96.06Bearish
EMA 21$96.66Bearish
EMA 50$95.71Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.2 · MACD -0.688

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.88 · BB 16.20%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 44.5 · OBV -1.61%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$87.05 - $107.09

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+17.02% · 4.2 ATR above latest close

$110.96
Nearest resistance

+12.94% · 3.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$107.09
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$94.82
Nearest support

-8.19% · 2.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$87.05
Deeper support zone

-12.28% · 3.0 ATR below latest close

$83.17
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$90.94 - $98.7

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $101.49, invalidation $96.95

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

25.4 / 18.8 / 21.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$85.23Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$96.98 / $94.76Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

39%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.88 (4.09%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 16.20%

36%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$102.7 / $90.65Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$90.94 / $98.7Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$107.09Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$87.05Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.2Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.688Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.2 / 15.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-50.6Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 11Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-1.61%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.33xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $101.49, invalidation $96.95

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

25.4 / 18.8 / 21.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$85.23Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$96.98 / $94.76Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

39%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.2Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.688Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.2 / 15.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-50.6Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 11Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.88 (4.09%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 16.20%

36%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$102.7 / $90.65Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$90.94 / $98.7Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-1.61%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.33xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$107.09Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$87.05Range

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