US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

MSFT 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $382.41 and stabilize above resistance $421.47.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $421.47 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 31.9, MACD 0.129

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $5.15 (1.39%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$373.94Bearish
EMA 21$382.41Bearish
EMA 50$396.16Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 31.9 · MACD 0.129

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $5.15 · BB 11.48%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 28.7 · OBV -98.60%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$367.07 - $421.47

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+15.11% · 10.9 ATR above latest close

$426.62
Nearest resistance

+13.72% · 9.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$421.47
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$370.63
Nearest support

-0.96% · 0.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$367.07
Deeper support zone

-2.35% · 1.7 ATR below latest close

$361.92
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$365.48 - $375.78

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $367.07, invalidation $381.36

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

54.4 / 13.7 / 46.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$357.26Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$379.82 / $417.74Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

10%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$5.15 (1.39%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 11.48%

22%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$391.87 / $371.65Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$365.48 / $375.78Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$421.47Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$367.07Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

31.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.129Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.1 / 19.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-79.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-98.60%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.81xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $367.07, invalidation $381.36

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

54.4 / 13.7 / 46.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$357.26Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$379.82 / $417.74Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

10%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

31.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.129Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.1 / 19.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-79.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$5.15 (1.39%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 11.48%

22%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$391.87 / $371.65Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$365.48 / $375.78Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-98.60%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.81xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$421.47Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$367.07Range

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