US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish73%
4h Downside probability 73%Bearish

MSFT 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $484.55 and stabilize above resistance $503.82.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $503.82 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.1, MACD 0.155

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $4.47 (0.93%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$482.74Bearish
EMA 21$484.55Bearish
EMA 50$480.94Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.1 · MACD 0.155

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.47 · BB 2.19%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 40.6 · OBV -7.05%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$476.98 - $503.82

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+5.32% · 5.7 ATR above latest close

$508.29
Nearest resistance

+4.39% · 4.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$503.82
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$482.61
Nearest support

-1.17% · 1.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$476.98
Deeper support zone

-2.09% · 2.3 ATR below latest close

$472.51
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$478.14 - $487.08

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $478.53, invalidation $486.36

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.6 / 27.2 / 9.3Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$469.34Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$486.79 / $494.07Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

33%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.47 (0.93%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.19%

47%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$493.34 / $475.48Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$478.14 / $487.08Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$503.82Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$476.98Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.155Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

37.5 / 41.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-62.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-11.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-7.05%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.32xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $478.53, invalidation $486.36

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.6 / 27.2 / 9.3Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$469.34Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$486.79 / $494.07Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

33%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.155Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

37.5 / 41.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-62.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-11.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.47 (0.93%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.19%

47%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$493.34 / $475.48Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$478.14 / $487.08Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-7.05%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.32xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$503.82Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$476.98Range

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