US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

MSFT 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $528.05 and stabilize above resistance $551.15.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $551.15 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 43.1, MACD -0.789

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $5.45 (1.04%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$524.64Bearish
EMA 21$528.05Bearish
EMA 50$528.46Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 43.1 · MACD -0.789

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $5.45 · BB 3.38%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 31.4 · OBV -6.02%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$515 - $551.15

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+6.26% · 6.0 ATR above latest close

$556.6
Nearest resistance

+5.22% · 5.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$551.15
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$523.79
Nearest support

-1.68% · 1.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$515
Deeper support zone

-2.72% · 2.6 ATR below latest close

$509.55
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$518.34 - $529.24

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $515, invalidation $533.75

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.1 / 16.8 / 27.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$508.05Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$526.89 / $533.08Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

40%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$5.45 (1.04%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.38%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$538.75 / $517Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$518.34 / $529.24Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$551.15Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$515Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.789Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

42.5 / 35.2Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-57.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-81.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

31.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.02%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.84xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $515, invalidation $533.75

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.1 / 16.8 / 27.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$508.05Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$526.89 / $533.08Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

40%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.789Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

42.5 / 35.2Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-57.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-81.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$5.45 (1.04%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.38%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$538.75 / $517Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$518.34 / $529.24Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

31.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.02%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.84xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$551.15Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$515Range

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