US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish67%
Monthly Downside probability 67%Bearish

MSFT 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $424.6 and stabilize above resistance $555.45.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $555.45 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.4, MACD -14.987

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $52.92 (13.74%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$413.22Bearish
EMA 21$424.6Bearish
EMA 50$383.4Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.4 · MACD -14.987

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $52.92 · BB 49.01%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 34.8 · OBV -32.76%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$311.22 - $555.45

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+57.94% · 4.2 ATR above latest close

$608.37
Nearest resistance

+44.2% · 3.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$555.45
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$385.2
Nearest support

-19.21% · 1.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$311.22
Deeper support zone

-32.94% · 2.4 ATR below latest close

$258.3
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$332.28 - $438.12

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $553.72, invalidation $356.28

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.7 / 22.2 / 28.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$215.39Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$443.6 / $384.44Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$52.92 (13.74%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 49.01%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$537.88 / $312.46Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$332.28 / $438.12Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$555.45Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$311.22Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.4Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-14.987Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.5 / 26.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-85.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-32.76%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.41xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $553.72, invalidation $356.28

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.7 / 22.2 / 28.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$215.39Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$443.6 / $384.44Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.4Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-14.987Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.5 / 26.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-85.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$52.92 (13.74%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 49.01%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$537.88 / $312.46Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$332.28 / $438.12Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-32.76%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.41xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$555.45Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$311.22Range

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