US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish69%
Monthly Downside probability 69%Bearish

MSFT 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $428.51 and stabilize above resistance $555.2.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $555.2 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 43.7, MACD -14.565

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $54.47 (14.57%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$421.27Bearish
EMA 21$428.51Bearish
EMA 50$382.21Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 43.7 · MACD -14.565

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $54.47 · BB 47.64%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 40.7 · OBV -81.86%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$309.56 - $555.2

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+63.04% · 4.3 ATR above latest close

$609.67
Nearest resistance

+48.48% · 3.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$555.2
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$373.93
Nearest support

-17.21% · 1.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$309.56
Deeper support zone

-31.78% · 2.2 ATR below latest close

$255.09
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$319.46 - $428.4

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $553.63, invalidation $356.29

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

21.1 / 30.2 / 25.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$255.08Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$452.5 / $384.33Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$54.47 (14.57%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 47.64%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$538.32 / $320.36Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$319.46 / $428.4Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$555.2Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$309.56Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-14.565Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.9 / 29.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-63.2Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-81.86%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.17xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $553.63, invalidation $356.29

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

21.1 / 30.2 / 25.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$255.08Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$452.5 / $384.33Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-14.565Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.9 / 29.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-63.2Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$54.47 (14.57%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 47.64%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$538.32 / $320.36Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$319.46 / $428.4Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-81.86%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.17xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$555.2Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$309.56Range

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