US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish80%
Weekly Downside probability 80%Bearish

MSFT 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $412.19 and stabilize above resistance $524.9.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $524.9 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 38.3, MACD -0.024

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $29.7 (7.94%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$398.47Bearish
EMA 21$412.19Bearish
EMA 50$431.57Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 38.3 · MACD -0.024

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $29.7 · BB 22.57%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 56.2 · OBV -226.66%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$356.29 - $524.9

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+48.32% · 6.1 ATR above latest close

$554.6
Nearest resistance

+40.37% · 5.1 ATR above · 34-bar high

$524.9
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$373.93
Nearest support

-4.72% · 0.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$356.29
Deeper support zone

-12.66% · 1.6 ATR below latest close

$326.59
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$344.23 - $403.63

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $466.27, invalidation $356.29

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

30.9 / 23.5 / 20.5Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$287.44Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$420.76 / $455.75Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

16%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$29.7 (7.94%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 22.57%

21%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$468.9 / $353.34Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$344.23 / $403.63Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$524.9Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$356.29Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

38.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.024Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

16.0 / 22.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-84.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-108.7Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

56.2Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-226.66%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.22xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $466.27, invalidation $356.29

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

30.9 / 23.5 / 20.5Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$287.44Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$420.76 / $455.75Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

16%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

38.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.024Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

16.0 / 22.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-84.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-108.7Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$29.7 (7.94%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 22.57%

21%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$468.9 / $353.34Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$344.23 / $403.63Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

56.2Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-226.66%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.22xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$524.9Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$356.29Range

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