US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish90%
Weekly Downside probability 90%Bearish

MSFT 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $405.88 and stabilize above resistance $493.5.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $493.5 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.2, MACD -0.106

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $31.65 (8.22%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$392.1Bearish
EMA 21$405.88Bearish
EMA 50$426.54Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.2 · MACD -0.106

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $31.65 · BB 23.29%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 54.9 · OBV -24.78%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$349.2 - $493.5

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+36.33% · 4.4 ATR above latest close

$525.15
Nearest resistance

+28.12% · 3.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$493.5
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$385.2
Nearest support

-9.35% · 1.1 ATR below · 34-bar low

$349.2
Deeper support zone

-17.56% · 2.1 ATR below latest close

$317.55
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$353.55 - $416.85

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $466.32, invalidation $349.2

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.8 / 22.7 / 18.7Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$292.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$412.12 / $452.33Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

31%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$31.65 (8.22%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 23.29%

35%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$465.89 / $343.73Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$353.55 / $416.85Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$493.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$349.2Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.2Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.106Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.7 / 32.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-49.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.9Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-24.78%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.10xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $466.32, invalidation $349.2

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.8 / 22.7 / 18.7Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$292.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$412.12 / $452.33Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

31%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.2Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.106Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.7 / 32.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-49.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$31.65 (8.22%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 23.29%

35%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$465.89 / $343.73Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$353.55 / $416.85Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.9Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-24.78%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.10xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$493.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$349.2Range

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