US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

1 hourBearish75%
1h Downside probability 75%Bearish

MSFT 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $373.56 and stabilize above resistance $382.46.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $382.46 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.0, MACD 0.397

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $2.89 (0.78%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$372.36Bearish
EMA 21$373.56Bearish
EMA 50$379.04Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.0 · MACD 0.397

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.89 · BB 2.61%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 44.4 · OBV -10.67%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$367.07 - $382.46

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.97% · 5.1 ATR above latest close

$385.35
Nearest resistance

+3.19% · 4.1 ATR above · 34-bar high

$382.46
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$370.63
Nearest support

-0.96% · 1.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$367.07
Deeper support zone

-1.74% · 2.2 ATR below latest close

$364.18
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$367.74 - $373.52

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $376.83, invalidation $370.64

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.7 / 30.0 / 21.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$362.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$373.78 / $383.83Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

36%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.89 (0.78%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.61%

37%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$379.31 / $367.53Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$367.74 / $373.52Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$382.46Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$367.07Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.397Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

4.9 / 21.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-95.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-30.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-10.67%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.76xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $376.83, invalidation $370.64

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.7 / 30.0 / 21.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$362.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$373.78 / $383.83Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

36%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.397Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

4.9 / 21.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-95.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-30.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.89 (0.78%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.61%

37%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$379.31 / $367.53Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$367.74 / $373.52Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-10.67%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.76xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$382.46Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$367.07Range

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