US stock / ETF

Microsoft

MSFT · NASDAQ · USD

1 hourBearish84%
1h Downside probability 84%Bearish

MSFT 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $386.05 and stabilize above resistance $393.57.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $393.57 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 47.3, MACD -0.048

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $3 (0.78%)

1h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$385.55Bearish
EMA 21$386.05Bearish
EMA 50$386.03Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 47.3 · MACD -0.048

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3 · BB 3.81%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 43.2 · OBV 8.57%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$377.35 - $393.57

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+2.95% · 3.8 ATR above latest close

$396.57
Nearest resistance

+2.17% · 2.8 ATR above · 34-bar high

$393.57
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$385.2
Nearest support

-2.04% · 2.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$377.35
Deeper support zone

-2.82% · 3.6 ATR below latest close

$374.35
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$382.2 - $388.2

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $377.35, invalidation $388.19

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.6 / 19.7 / 39.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$374.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$384.12 / $385.46Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

48%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3 (0.78%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.81%

39%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$392.92 / $379.12Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$382.2 / $388.2Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$393.57Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$377.35Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.048Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

62.1 / 65.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-37.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-46.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

43.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

8.57%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

4.19xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $377.35, invalidation $388.19

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.6 / 19.7 / 39.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$374.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$384.12 / $385.46Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

48%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.048Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

62.1 / 65.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-37.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-46.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3 (0.78%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.81%

39%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$392.92 / $379.12Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$382.2 / $388.2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

43.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

8.57%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

4.19xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$393.57Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$377.35Range

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