US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish69%
4h Downside probability 69%Bearish

MCHP 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $75.14 and stabilize above resistance $78.66.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $78.66 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 44.7, MACD -0.211

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $1.56 (2.11%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$74.95Bearish
EMA 21$75.14Bearish
EMA 50$75.33Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 44.7 · MACD -0.211

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.56 · BB 6.31%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 61.7 · OBV 4.72%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$69.01 - $78.66

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+8.42% · 4.0 ATR above latest close

$80.22
Nearest resistance

+6.31% · 3.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$78.66
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$73.99
Nearest support

-6.73% · 3.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$69.01
Deeper support zone

-8.84% · 4.2 ATR below latest close

$67.45
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$72.43 - $75.55

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $78.66, invalidation $73.81

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.8 / 22.3 / 20.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$69.91Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$75 / $75.26Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.56 (2.11%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 6.31%

20%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$78.09 / $72.19Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$72.43 / $75.55Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$78.66Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$69.01Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.211Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

12.7 / 25.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-87.3Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-88.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

61.7Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

4.72%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.26xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $78.66, invalidation $73.81

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.8 / 22.3 / 20.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$69.91Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$75 / $75.26Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.211Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

12.7 / 25.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-87.3Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-88.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.56 (2.11%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 6.31%

20%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$78.09 / $72.19Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$72.43 / $75.55Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

61.7Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

4.72%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.26xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$78.66Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$69.01Range

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