US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish69%
4h Downside probability 69%Bearish

MCHP 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $95.41 and stabilize above resistance $104.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $104 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.3, MACD -0.653

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $3.76 (4.14%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$94.99Bearish
EMA 21$95.41Bearish
EMA 50$94.32Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.3 · MACD -0.653

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.76 · BB 17.50%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 31.5 · OBV -2.25%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$85.32 - $104

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+18.45% · 4.5 ATR above latest close

$107.76
Nearest resistance

+14.32% · 3.5 ATR above · 34-bar high

$104
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$90.97
Nearest support

-6.22% · 1.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$85.32
Deeper support zone

-10.35% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

$81.55
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$87.21 - $94.73

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $104, invalidation $93.95

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

17.9 / 22.0 / 33.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$80.34Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$95.78 / $94.66Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

21%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.76 (4.14%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 17.50%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$102.96 / $87.91Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$87.21 / $94.73Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$104Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.32Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.653Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.2 / 9.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-81.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

31.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-2.25%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.18xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $104, invalidation $93.95

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

17.9 / 22.0 / 33.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$80.34Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$95.78 / $94.66Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

21%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.653Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.2 / 9.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-81.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.76 (4.14%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 17.50%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$102.96 / $87.91Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$87.21 / $94.73Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

31.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-2.25%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.18xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$104Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.32Range

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