US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish60%
Monthly Downside probability 60%Bearish

MCHP 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $73.37 and stabilize above resistance $105.91.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $105.91 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 44.2, MACD -0.142

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $16.81 (27.08%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$74.26Bearish
EMA 21$73.37Bearish
EMA 50$71.57Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 44.2 · MACD -0.142

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $16.81 · BB 69.69%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 45.9 · OBV -154.63%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$34.13 - $105.91

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+97.68% · 3.6 ATR above latest close

$122.72
Nearest resistance

+70.6% · 2.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$105.91
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$62.08
Nearest support

-45.03% · 1.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$34.13
Deeper support zone

-72.11% · 2.7 ATR below latest close

$17.31
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$45.27 - $78.89

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $105.91, invalidation $59.31

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.8 / 23.5 / 26.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$14.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$75.19 / $70.02Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

39%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$16.81 (27.08%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 69.69%

33%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$108.83 / $38.03Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$45.27 / $78.89Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.91Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$34.13Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.2Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.142Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

23.6 / 41.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-76.4Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-32.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

45.9Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-154.63%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.81xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $105.91, invalidation $59.31

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.8 / 23.5 / 26.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$14.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$75.19 / $70.02Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

39%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.2Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.142Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

23.6 / 41.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-76.4Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-32.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$16.81 (27.08%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 69.69%

33%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$108.83 / $38.03Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$45.27 / $78.89Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

45.9Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-154.63%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.81xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.91Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$34.13Range

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