US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

1 hourBearish71%
1h Downside probability 71%Bearish

MCHP 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $74.84 and stabilize above resistance $78.66.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $78.66 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 41.0, MACD -0.036

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $0.6686 (0.9%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$74.43Bearish
EMA 21$74.84Bearish
EMA 50$75.17Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 41.0 · MACD -0.036

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $0.6686 · BB 2.06%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 68.0 · OBV 12.27%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$73.67 - $78.66

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+7.22% · 8.0 ATR above latest close

$79.33
Nearest resistance

+6.31% · 7.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$78.66
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$73.99
Nearest support

-0.43% · 0.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$73.67
Deeper support zone

-1.34% · 1.5 ATR below latest close

$73
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$73.32 - $74.66

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $75.5, invalidation $73.67

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.2 / 21.1 / 29.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$71.62Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$75.21 / $75.99Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

16%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.6686 (0.9%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.06%

4%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$76.41 / $73.23Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$73.32 / $74.66Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$78.66Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$73.67Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.036Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.5 / 33.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-182.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

68.0Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

12.27%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.34xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $75.5, invalidation $73.67

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

20.2 / 21.1 / 29.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$71.62Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$75.21 / $75.99Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

16%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.036Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.5 / 33.6Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-182.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.6686 (0.9%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.06%

4%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$76.41 / $73.23Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$73.32 / $74.66Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

68.0Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

12.27%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.34xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$78.66Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$73.67Range

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