US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

1 hourBearish84%
1h Downside probability 84%Bearish

MCHP 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $94.52 and stabilize above resistance $104.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $104 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 31.6, MACD -0.605

1h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $1.64 (1.8%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$92Bearish
EMA 21$94.52Bearish
EMA 50$95.75Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 31.6 · MACD -0.605

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.64 · BB 19.14%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 37.3 · OBV 1.17%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$89.8 - $104

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+16.12% · 8.9 ATR above latest close

$105.63
Nearest resistance

+14.32% · 7.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$104
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$90.97
Nearest support

-1.29% · 0.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$89.8
Deeper support zone

-3.09% · 1.7 ATR below latest close

$88.16
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$89.33 - $92.61

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $93.47, invalidation $101.41

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

58.5 / 3.1 / 55.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$86.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$94.34 / $96.9Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

8%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.64 (1.8%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 19.14%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$96.93 / $91.86Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$89.33 / $92.61Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$104Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$89.8Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

31.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.605Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

15.0 / 7.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-88.5Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

1.17%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.77xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $93.47, invalidation $101.41

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

58.5 / 3.1 / 55.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$86.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$94.34 / $96.9Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

8%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

31.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.605Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

15.0 / 7.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-88.5Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.64 (1.8%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 19.14%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$96.93 / $91.86Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$89.33 / $92.61Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

1.17%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.77xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$104Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$89.8Range

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