US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish92%
Weekly Downside probability 92%Bearish

MCHP 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $75.06 and stabilize above resistance $105.91.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $105.91 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 38.7, MACD -1.945

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $7.32 (11.8%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$70.05Bearish
EMA 21$75.06Bearish
EMA 50$75.35Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 38.7 · MACD -1.945

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $7.32 · BB 35.79%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 31.7 · OBV -33.64%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$54.83 - $105.91

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+82.4% · 7.0 ATR above latest close

$113.23
Nearest resistance

+70.6% · 6.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$105.91
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$62.08
Nearest support

-11.68% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$54.83
Deeper support zone

-23.47% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$47.51
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$54.76 - $69.4

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.22, invalidation $69.76

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

32.7 / 14.3 / 34.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$36.98Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$74.27 / $77.22Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$7.32 (11.8%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 35.79%

-2%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$91 / $58.74Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$54.76 / $69.4Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.91Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$54.83Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

38.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.945Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

23.5 / 28.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-76.5Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-214.6Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

31.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-33.64%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.93xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.22, invalidation $69.76

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

32.7 / 14.3 / 34.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$36.98Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$74.27 / $77.22Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

38.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.945Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

23.5 / 28.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-76.5Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-214.6Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$7.32 (11.8%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 35.79%

-2%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$91 / $58.74Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$54.76 / $69.4Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

31.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-33.64%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.93xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.91Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$54.83Range

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