US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish87%
Weekly Downside probability 87%Bearish

MCHP 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $78.23 and stabilize above resistance $105.91.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $105.91 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.5, MACD -0.970

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $6.7 (9.06%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$76.01Bearish
EMA 21$78.23Bearish
EMA 50$76.58Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.5 · MACD -0.970

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $6.7 · BB 37.08%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 35.0 · OBV -41.62%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$59.31 - $105.91

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+52.2% · 5.8 ATR above latest close

$112.61
Nearest resistance

+43.14% · 4.8 ATR above · 34-bar high

$105.91
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$73.99
Nearest support

-19.84% · 2.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$59.31
Deeper support zone

-28.9% · 3.2 ATR below latest close

$52.61
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$67.29 - $80.69

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $68.75, invalidation $83.4

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

30.5 / 18.0 / 24.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$58.78Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$81.7 / $77.22Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

15%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$6.7 (9.06%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 37.08%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$89.33 / $67.01Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$67.29 / $80.69Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.91Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$59.31Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.970Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.4 / 28.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.6Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-63.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

35.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-41.62%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.87xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $68.75, invalidation $83.4

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

30.5 / 18.0 / 24.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$58.78Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$81.7 / $77.22Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

15%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.970Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.4 / 28.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.6Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-63.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$6.7 (9.06%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 37.08%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$89.33 / $67.01Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$67.29 / $80.69Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

35.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-41.62%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.87xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.91Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$59.31Range

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