US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

3 monthsBearish66%
3M Downside probability 66%Bearish

MCHP 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $69.3 and stabilize above resistance $105.91.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $105.91 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 48.9, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $24.3 (39.14%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$71.13Bearish
EMA 21$69.3Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 48.9 · MACD --

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $24.3 · BB 70.30%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 55.4 · OBV -87.77%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$26.58 - $105.91

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+109.75% · 2.8 ATR above latest close

$130.21
Nearest resistance

+70.6% · 1.8 ATR above · 30-bar high

$105.91
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$62.08
Nearest support

-57.18% · 1.5 ATR below · 30-bar low

$26.58
Deeper support zone

-96.33% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

$2.28
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$37.78 - $86.38

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $105.91, invalidation $34.13

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

25.3 / 15.4 / 23.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$9.44Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$70.02 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

39%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.3 (39.14%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 70.30%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$121.85 / $17.11Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$37.78 / $86.38Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.91Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$26.58Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

38.9 / 59.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-61.1Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-45.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

55.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-87.77%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.79xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $105.91, invalidation $34.13

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

25.3 / 15.4 / 23.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$9.44Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$70.02 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

39%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

38.9 / 59.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-61.1Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-45.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.3 (39.14%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 70.30%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$121.85 / $17.11Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$37.78 / $86.38Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

55.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-87.77%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.79xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.91Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$26.58Range

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