US stock / ETF

Microchip Technology Incorporated

MCHP · NASDAQ · USD

12 hoursBearish57%
12h Downside probability 57%Bearish

MCHP 12H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

12h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $94.73 and stabilize above resistance $105.78.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $105.78 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

12h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 46.4, MACD -0.362

12h
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $5.86 (6.44%)

12h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$95.23Bearish
EMA 21$94.73Bearish
EMA 50$90.65Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.4 · MACD -0.362

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $5.86 · BB 16.04%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 46.2 · OBV -52.79%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$85.32 - $105.78

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+22.72% · 3.5 ATR above latest close

$111.64
Nearest resistance

+16.28% · 2.5 ATR above · 34-bar high

$105.78
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$90.97
Nearest support

-6.22% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$85.32
Deeper support zone

-12.66% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$79.46
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$85.11 - $96.83

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $104, invalidation $93.95

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

8.2 / 20.7 / 32.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$75.14Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$95.55 / $88.32Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

30%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$5.86 (6.44%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 16.04%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$105.81 / $83.81Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$85.11 / $96.83Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.78Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.32Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.4Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.362Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.3 / 55.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-87.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

46.2Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-52.79%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.65xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $104, invalidation $93.95

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

8.2 / 20.7 / 32.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$75.14Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$95.55 / $88.32Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

30%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.4Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.362Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.3 / 55.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-87.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$5.86 (6.44%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 16.04%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$105.81 / $83.81Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$85.11 / $96.83Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

46.2Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-52.79%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.65xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$105.78Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.32Range

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