US stock / ETF

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.

EL · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish91%
4h Downside probability 91%Bearish

EL 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $97.2 and stabilize above resistance $104.78.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $104.78 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 40.0, MACD -0.058

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.3 (1.36%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$96.12Bearish
EMA 21$97.2Bearish
EMA 50$98.23Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 40.0 · MACD -0.058

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.3 · BB 4.16%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 32.7 · OBV -11.80%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$94.45 - $104.78

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+10.96% · 8.1 ATR above latest close

$106.08
Nearest resistance

+9.6% · 7.1 ATR above · 34-bar high

$104.78
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$95.6
Nearest support

-1.21% · 0.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$94.45
Deeper support zone

-2.56% · 1.9 ATR below latest close

$93.15
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$94.3 - $96.9

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $95.52, invalidation $96.69

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

66.8 / 6.9 / 33.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$92.19Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$97.98 / $100.94Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.3 (1.36%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.16%

19%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$99.4 / $94.85Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$94.3 / $96.9Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$104.78Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$94.45Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.058Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

25.8 / 21.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-74.2Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-133.7Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

32.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-11.80%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.74xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $95.52, invalidation $96.69

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

66.8 / 6.9 / 33.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$92.19Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$97.98 / $100.94Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.058Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

25.8 / 21.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-74.2Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-133.7Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.3 (1.36%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.16%

19%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$99.4 / $94.85Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$94.3 / $96.9Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

32.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-11.80%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.74xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$104.78Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$94.45Range

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