US stock / ETF

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.

EL · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish65%
Monthly Downside probability 65%Bearish

EL 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $96 and stabilize above resistance $163.26.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $163.26 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 42.5, MACD 3.954

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $17.53 (21.75%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$87.66Bearish
EMA 21$96Bearish
EMA 50$145.48Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.5 · MACD 3.954

Momentum is weak

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $17.53 · BB 69.47%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 52.8 · OBV -5.58%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$48.63 - $163.26

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+124.39% · 5.7 ATR above latest close

$180.79
Nearest resistance

+102.63% · 4.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$163.26
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$80.57
Nearest support

-39.65% · 1.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$48.63
Deeper support zone

-61.4% · 2.8 ATR below latest close

$31.1
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$63.04 - $98.1

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $121.56, invalidation $66.33

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

27.4 / 31.0 / 15.9Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$28.77Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$94.33 / $171.63Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

44%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$17.53 (21.75%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 69.47%

43%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$132.66 / $57.15Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$63.04 / $98.1Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$163.26Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$48.63Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

3.954Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

36.8 / 43.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-63.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

1.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

52.8Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-5.58%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.01xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $121.56, invalidation $66.33

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

27.4 / 31.0 / 15.9Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$28.77Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$94.33 / $171.63Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

44%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

3.954Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

36.8 / 43.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-63.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

1.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$17.53 (21.75%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 69.47%

43%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$132.66 / $57.15Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$63.04 / $98.1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

52.8Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-5.58%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.01xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$163.26Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$48.63Range

Related Forecasts