US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish78%
4h Downside probability 78%Bearish

BABA 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $108.69 and stabilize above resistance $133.31.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $133.31 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 21.9, MACD -0.378

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $1.91 (1.9%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$103.59Bearish
EMA 21$108.69Bearish
EMA 50$116.37Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 21.9 · MACD -0.378

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.91 · BB 16.37%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 29.3 · OBV -6.70%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$100.29 - $133.31

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+34.63% · 18.2 ATR above latest close

$135.22
Nearest resistance

+32.73% · 17.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$133.31
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$100.44
Nearest support

-0.14% · 0.1 ATR below · 34-bar low

$100.29
Deeper support zone

-2.04% · 1.1 ATR below latest close

$98.38
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$98.53 - $102.34

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $113.8, invalidation $109.06

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

59.2 / 10.2 / 49.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$95.11Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$108.12 / $117.18Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

1%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.91 (1.9%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 16.37%

5%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$112.09 / $104.58Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$98.53 / $102.34Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$133.31Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$100.29Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

21.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.378Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

1.1 / 3.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-98.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-136.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

29.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.70%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.60xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $113.8, invalidation $109.06

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

59.2 / 10.2 / 49.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$95.11Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$108.12 / $117.18Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

1%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

21.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.378Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

1.1 / 3.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-98.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-136.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.91 (1.9%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 16.37%

5%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$112.09 / $104.58Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$98.53 / $102.34Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

29.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.70%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.60xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$133.31Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$100.29Range

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