US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish86%
4h Downside probability 86%Bearish

BABA 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $125.31 and stabilize above resistance $131.4.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $131.4 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 36.6, MACD -0.941

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $3.19 (2.67%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$123.64Bearish
EMA 21$125.31Bearish
EMA 50$125.05Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 36.6 · MACD -0.941

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.19 · BB 9.61%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 37.4 · OBV -16.52%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$119.32 - $131.4

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+12.67% · 4.7 ATR above latest close

$134.59
Nearest resistance

+9.99% · 3.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$131.4
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$119.46
Nearest support

-0.12% · 0.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$119.32
Deeper support zone

-2.79% · 1.0 ATR below latest close

$116.13
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$116.27 - $122.65

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $120.72, invalidation $130.57

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.4 / 11.3 / 44.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$108.06Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$125.36 / $125.88Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

1%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.19 (2.67%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 9.61%

-5%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$132.86 / $117.67Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$116.27 / $122.65Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$131.4Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$119.32Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.941Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

1.2 / 4.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-98.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-201.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-16.52%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.80xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $120.72, invalidation $130.57

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.4 / 11.3 / 44.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$108.06Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$125.36 / $125.88Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

1%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.941Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

1.2 / 4.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-98.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-201.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.19 (2.67%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 9.61%

-5%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$132.86 / $117.67Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$116.27 / $122.65Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-16.52%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.80xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$131.4Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$119.32Range

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