US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish72%
4h Downside probability 72%Bearish

BABA 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $101.02 and stabilize above resistance $111.99.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $111.99 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 22.7, MACD -1.124

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $1.76 (1.86%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$97.65Bearish
EMA 21$101.02Bearish
EMA 50$102.77Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 22.7 · MACD -1.124

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.76 · BB 16.23%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 10.6 · OBV -180.09%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$93.42 - $111.99

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+20.22% · 10.9 ATR above latest close

$113.75
Nearest resistance

+18.36% · 9.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$111.99
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$94.62
Nearest support

-1.27% · 0.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$93.42
Deeper support zone

-3.13% · 1.7 ATR below latest close

$91.66
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$92.86 - $96.38

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $93.42, invalidation $103.43

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

53.6 / 9.3 / 54.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$89.75Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$99.99 / $102.71Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

8%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.76 (1.86%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 16.23%

4%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$104.1 / $97.65Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$92.86 / $96.38Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$111.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$93.42Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

22.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.124Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

9.2 / 8.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-90.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-162.6Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

10.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-180.09%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.77xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $93.42, invalidation $103.43

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

53.6 / 9.3 / 54.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$89.75Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$99.99 / $102.71Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

8%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

22.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.124Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

9.2 / 8.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-90.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-162.6Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.76 (1.86%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 16.23%

4%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$104.1 / $97.65Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$92.86 / $96.38Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

10.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-180.09%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.77xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$111.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$93.42Range

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