US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish80%
4h Downside probability 80%Bearish

BABA 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $110.54 and stabilize above resistance $116.55.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $116.55 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 36.8, MACD 0.099

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $0.8871 (0.81%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$109.47Bearish
EMA 21$110.54Bearish
EMA 50$113.3Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 36.8 · MACD 0.099

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $0.8871 · BB 6.33%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 28.4 · OBV 11.63%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$107.72 - $116.55

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+7.43% · 9.2 ATR above latest close

$117.44
Nearest resistance

+6.62% · 8.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$116.55
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$109.31
Nearest support

-1.45% · 1.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$107.72
Deeper support zone

-2.27% · 2.8 ATR below latest close

$106.83
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$108.42 - $110.2

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $110.55, invalidation $108.41

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

61.6 / 14.8 / 40.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$106.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$109.97 / $114.43Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.8871 (0.81%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 6.33%

29%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$112.15 / $108.76Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$108.42 / $110.2Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$116.55Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$107.72Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.099Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.2 / 32.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-59.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 4Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

11.63%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.34xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $110.55, invalidation $108.41

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

61.6 / 14.8 / 40.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$106.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$109.97 / $114.43Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.099Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.2 / 32.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-59.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 4Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.8871 (0.81%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 6.33%

29%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$112.15 / $108.76Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$108.42 / $110.2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

11.63%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.34xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$116.55Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$107.72Range

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