US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

BABA 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $104.35 and stabilize above resistance $115.2.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $115.2 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 30.8, MACD -0.565

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $2.07 (2.08%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$101.49Bearish
EMA 21$104.35Bearish
EMA 50$106.8Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 30.8 · MACD -0.565

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.07 · BB 13.97%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 42.8 · OBV -47.02%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$98.91 - $115.2

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+17.5% · 8.4 ATR above latest close

$117.27
Nearest resistance

+15.42% · 7.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$115.2
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$99.81
Nearest support

-0.9% · 0.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$98.91
Deeper support zone

-2.98% · 1.4 ATR below latest close

$96.84
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$97.74 - $101.88

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $98.91, invalidation $109.24

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

32.7 / 23.2 / 42.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$93.5Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$103.79 / $107.06Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

7%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.07 (2.08%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 13.97%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$108.55 / $99.82Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$97.74 / $101.88Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$115.2Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$98.91Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

30.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.565Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.7 / 10.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.3Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-104.9Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 11Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

42.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-47.02%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.98xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $98.91, invalidation $109.24

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

32.7 / 23.2 / 42.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$93.5Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$103.79 / $107.06Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

7%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

30.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.565Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.7 / 10.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.3Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-104.9Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 11Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.07 (2.08%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 13.97%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$108.55 / $99.82Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$97.74 / $101.88Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

42.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-47.02%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.98xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$115.2Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$98.91Range

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