US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

12 hoursBearish80%
12h Downside probability 80%Bearish

BABA 12H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

12h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $109.27 and stabilize above resistance $120.8.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $120.8 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

12h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 34.3, MACD -0.405

12h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $1.66 (1.57%)

12h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$107.49Bearish
EMA 21$109.27Bearish
EMA 50$111.71Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 34.3 · MACD -0.405

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.66 · BB 13.08%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 18.4 · OBV -33.37%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$105.21 - $120.8

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+15.63% · 10.0 ATR above latest close

$122.46
Nearest resistance

+14.06% · 9.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$120.8
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$105.91
Nearest support

-0.66% · 0.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$105.21
Deeper support zone

-2.23% · 1.4 ATR below latest close

$103.55
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$104.25 - $107.57

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $109.6, invalidation $107.43

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.3 / 11.5 / 27.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$101.28Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$110.35 / $113.01Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

4%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.66 (1.57%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 13.08%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$112.28 / $106.07Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$104.25 / $107.57Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$120.8Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$105.21Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

34.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.405Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.8 / 7.5Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-113.9Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

18.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-33.37%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.76xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $109.6, invalidation $107.43

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.3 / 11.5 / 27.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$101.28Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$110.35 / $113.01Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

4%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

34.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.405Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

8.8 / 7.5Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-91.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-113.9Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.66 (1.57%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 13.08%

17%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$112.28 / $106.07Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$104.25 / $107.57Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

18.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-33.37%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.76xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$120.8Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$105.21Range

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