US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 weekBearish89%
Weekly Downside probability 89%Bearish

BABA 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $117.64 and stabilize above resistance $168.26.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $168.26 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 39.8, MACD 0.127

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $8.91 (8.42%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$112.22Bearish
EMA 21$117.64Bearish
EMA 50$125.01Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 39.8 · MACD 0.127

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $8.91 · BB 32.04%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 44.5 · OBV -23.40%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$91.99 - $168.26

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+67.37% · 8.0 ATR above latest close

$177.17
Nearest resistance

+58.96% · 7.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$168.26
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$105.85
Nearest support

-13.09% · 1.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$91.99
Deeper support zone

-21.51% · 2.6 ATR below latest close

$83.08
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$96.94 - $114.76

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $130.99

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

10.7 / 32.0 / 18.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$82.81Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$118.71 / $140.8Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

31%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$8.91 (8.42%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 32.04%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$133.7 / $100.73Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$96.94 / $114.76Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$168.26Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$91.99Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

39.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.127Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

31.4 / 43.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-68.6Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-76.2Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-23.40%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.64xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $130.99

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

10.7 / 32.0 / 18.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$82.81Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$118.71 / $140.8Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

31%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

39.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.127Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

31.4 / 43.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-68.6Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-76.2Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$8.91 (8.42%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 32.04%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$133.7 / $100.73Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$96.94 / $114.76Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-23.40%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.64xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$168.26Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$91.99Range

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