US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 weekBearish91%
Weekly Downside probability 91%Bearish

BABA 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $114.85 and stabilize above resistance $146.87.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $146.87 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 37.6, MACD -0.272

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $8.06 (8.07%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$108.81Bearish
EMA 21$114.85Bearish
EMA 50$122.93Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 37.6 · MACD -0.272

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $8.06 · BB 30.01%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 40.2 · OBV -16.08%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$91.99 - $146.87

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+55.22% · 6.8 ATR above latest close

$154.93
Nearest resistance

+47.15% · 5.8 ATR above · 34-bar high

$146.87
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$99.81
Nearest support

-7.83% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$91.99
Deeper support zone

-15.91% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$83.93
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$91.75 - $107.87

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $120.4

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

11.8 / 18.5 / 29.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$81.2Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$114.79 / $137.25Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

20%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$8.06 (8.07%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 30.01%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$130.02 / $98.78Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$91.75 / $107.87Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$146.87Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$91.99Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.272Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

2.8 / 20.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-97.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-101.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-16.08%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.76xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $120.4

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

11.8 / 18.5 / 29.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$81.2Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$114.79 / $137.25Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

20%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.272Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

2.8 / 20.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-97.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-101.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$8.06 (8.07%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 30.01%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$130.02 / $98.78Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$91.75 / $107.87Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-16.08%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.76xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$146.87Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$91.99Range

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