US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 weekBearish89%
Weekly Downside probability 89%Bearish

BABA 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $120.38 and stabilize above resistance $181.1.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $181.1 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 41.0, MACD 0.834

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $9.85 (9.01%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$115.85Bearish
EMA 21$120.38Bearish
EMA 50$126.99Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 41.0 · MACD 0.834

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $9.85 · BB 38.35%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 29.2 · OBV -26.54%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$91.99 - $181.1

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+74.7% · 8.3 ATR above latest close

$190.95
Nearest resistance

+65.69% · 7.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$181.1
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$109.3
Nearest support

-15.84% · 1.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$91.99
Deeper support zone

-24.85% · 2.8 ATR below latest close

$82.14
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$99.45 - $119.15

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $130.99

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

9.2 / 24.2 / 33.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$81.33Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$119.39 / $142.33Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

32%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.85 (9.01%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 38.35%

30%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$139.28 / $100.64Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$99.45 / $119.15Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$181.1Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$91.99Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.834Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

44.4 / 52.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-55.6Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-65.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

29.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-26.54%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.46xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $130.99

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

9.2 / 24.2 / 33.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$81.33Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$119.39 / $142.33Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

32%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.834Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

44.4 / 52.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-55.6Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-65.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.85 (9.01%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 38.35%

30%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$139.28 / $100.64Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$99.45 / $119.15Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

29.2Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-26.54%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.46xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$181.1Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$91.99Range

Related Forecasts