US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

3 monthsBearish58%
3M Downside probability 58%Bearish

BABA 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $129.16 and stabilize above resistance $319.32.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $319.32 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.1, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $39.38 (41.73%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$111.68Bearish
EMA 21$129.16Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.1 · MACD --

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $39.38 · BB 101.09%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 53.5 · OBV -7.61%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$58.01 - $319.32

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+280.14% · 6.7 ATR above latest close

$358.7
Nearest resistance

+238.41% · 5.7 ATR above · 30-bar high

$319.32
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$94.36
Nearest support

-38.52% · 0.9 ATR below · 30-bar low

$58.01
Deeper support zone

-80.26% · 1.9 ATR below latest close

$18.63
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$54.98 - $133.74

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $91.99

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.5 / 23.3 / 13.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$40.6Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$162.52 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

27%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$39.38 (41.73%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 101.09%

41%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$223.64 / $32.07Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$54.98 / $133.74Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.32Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.01Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

22.0 / 25.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-78.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-18.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

53.5Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-7.61%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.23xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $91.99

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.5 / 23.3 / 13.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$40.6Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$162.52 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

27%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

22.0 / 25.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-78.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-18.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$39.38 (41.73%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 101.09%

41%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$223.64 / $32.07Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$54.98 / $133.74Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

53.5Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-7.61%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.23xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.32Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.01Range

Related Forecasts