US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

3 monthsBullish63%
3M Upside probability 63%Bullish

BABA 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Hold above $58.01 and reclaim $319.32.

Invalidation Trigger

Lose $58.01 and MACD turns lower again.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateBullish
Momentum improving

RSI 48.5, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $39.82 (33.37%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$119.25Bullish
EMA 21$133.71Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 48.5 · MACD --

Neutral zone

Strength
Bullish
Volatility
ATR $39.82 · BB 100.51%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 54.3 · OBV -90.02%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$58.01 - $319.32

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+200.94% · 6.0 ATR above latest close

$359.14
Nearest resistance

+167.57% · 5.0 ATR above · 29-bar high

$319.32
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$119.34
Nearest support

-51.39% · 1.5 ATR below · 29-bar low

$58.01
Deeper support zone

-84.76% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

$18.19
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$79.52 - $159.16

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $91.99

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

36.3 / 23.0 / 12.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$31.42Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$160.49 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

46%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$39.82 (33.37%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 100.51%

63%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$228.85 / $36.16Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$79.52 / $159.16Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.32Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.01Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

41.8 / 38.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-58.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

26.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.3Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-90.02%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.33xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $91.99

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

36.3 / 23.0 / 12.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$31.42Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$160.49 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

46%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

41.8 / 38.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-58.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

26.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$39.82 (33.37%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 100.51%

63%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$228.85 / $36.16Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$79.52 / $159.16Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.3Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-90.02%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.33xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.32Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.01Range

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