US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

3 monthsBearish59%
3M Downside probability 59%Bearish

BABA 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $128.99 and stabilize above resistance $319.23.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $319.23 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 34.7, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $39.51 (38.53%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$121.17Bearish
EMA 21$128.99Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 34.7 · MACD --

Momentum is weak

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $39.51 · BB 103.94%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 60.7 · OBV -53.79%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$58.03 - $319.23

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+249.8% · 6.5 ATR above latest close

$358.74
Nearest resistance

+211.28% · 5.5 ATR above · 24-bar high

$319.23
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$102.56
Nearest support

-43.42% · 1.1 ATR below · 24-bar low

$58.03
Deeper support zone

-81.94% · 2.1 ATR below latest close

$18.52
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$63.04 - $142.07

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $80.07

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

-- / -- / --Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$9.82Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

-- / --Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$39.51 (38.53%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 103.94%

46%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$220.14 / $41.18Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$63.04 / $142.07Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.23Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.03Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

34.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

28.5 / 48.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-71.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

19.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

60.7Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-53.79%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.57xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $80.07

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

-- / -- / --Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$9.82Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

-- / --Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

34.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

28.5 / 48.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-71.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

19.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$39.51 (38.53%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 103.94%

46%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$220.14 / $41.18Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$63.04 / $142.07Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

60.7Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-53.79%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.57xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.23Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.03Range

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