US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

3 monthsBullish56%
3M Upside probability 56%Bullish

BABA 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Hold above $58.01 and reclaim $319.32.

Invalidation Trigger

Lose $58.01 and MACD turns lower again.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateBullish
Momentum improving

RSI 46.6, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $38.33 (36.21%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$114.23Bearish
EMA 21$130.2Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.6 · MACD --

Neutral zone

Strength
Bullish
Volatility
ATR $38.33 · BB 100.22%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 54.5 · OBV -2.18%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$58.01 - $319.32

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+237.88% · 6.6 ATR above latest close

$357.65
Nearest resistance

+201.67% · 5.6 ATR above · 30-bar high

$319.32
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$105.85
Nearest support

-45.2% · 1.2 ATR below · 30-bar low

$58.01
Deeper support zone

-81.41% · 2.2 ATR below latest close

$19.68
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$67.52 - $144.18

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $91.99

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.6 / 23.9 / 13.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$31.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$162.52 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

36%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$38.33 (36.21%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 100.22%

52%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$221.79 / $36.11Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$67.52 / $144.18Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.32Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.01Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

31.1 / 29.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-68.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

5.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.5Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-2.18%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.02xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $91.99

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.6 / 23.9 / 13.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$31.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$162.52 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

36%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

31.1 / 29.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-68.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

5.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$38.33 (36.21%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 100.22%

52%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$221.79 / $36.11Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$67.52 / $144.18Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.5Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-2.18%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.02xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.32Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.01Range

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