US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

3 monthsBearish58%
3M Downside probability 58%Bearish

BABA 3M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

3M: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $129.65 and stabilize above resistance $319.32.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $319.32 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

3M
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.8, MACD --

3M
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $38.99 (39.06%)

3M

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$112.89Bearish
EMA 21$129.65Bearish
EMA 50--Range

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.8 · MACD --

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $38.99 · BB 100.56%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 54.1 · OBV -4.41%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$58.01 - $319.32

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+259% · 6.6 ATR above latest close

$358.31
Nearest resistance

+219.93% · 5.6 ATR above · 30-bar high

$319.32
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$99.81
Nearest support

-41.88% · 1.1 ATR below · 30-bar low

$58.01
Deeper support zone

-80.94% · 2.1 ATR below latest close

$19.02
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$60.82 - $138.8

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $91.99

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.6 / 23.5 / 12.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$36.21Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$162.52 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

31%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$38.99 (39.06%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 100.56%

46%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$223.06 / $33.69Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$60.82 / $138.8Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.32Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.01Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.8Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

26.3 / 27.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-73.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-5.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.1Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-4.41%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.10xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $192.67, invalidation $91.99

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.6 / 23.5 / 12.8Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$36.21Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$162.52 / --Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

31%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.8Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

--Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

26.3 / 27.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-73.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-5.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$38.99 (39.06%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 100.56%

46%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$223.06 / $33.69Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$60.82 / $138.8Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.1Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-4.41%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.10xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$319.32Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$58.01Range

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