US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish92%
Monthly Downside probability 92%Bearish

BABA 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $118.47 and stabilize above resistance $192.67.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $192.67 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.9, MACD -6.299

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $24.5 (25.96%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$110.91Bearish
EMA 21$118.47Bearish
EMA 50$125.77Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.9 · MACD -6.299

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $24.5 · BB 75.19%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 52.8 · OBV -115.01%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$68.36 - $192.67

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+130.15% · 5.0 ATR above latest close

$217.17
Nearest resistance

+104.19% · 4.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$192.67
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$94.36
Nearest support

-27.55% · 1.1 ATR below · 34-bar low

$68.36
Deeper support zone

-53.52% · 2.1 ATR below latest close

$43.86
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$69.86 - $118.86

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.4 / 11.2 / 26.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$33.11Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$127.9 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

2%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.5 (25.96%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 75.19%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$164.59 / $72.34Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$69.86 / $118.86Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$68.36Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-6.299Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

2.4 / 7.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-97.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-112.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

52.8Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-115.01%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.40xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.4 / 11.2 / 26.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$33.11Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$127.9 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

2%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-6.299Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

2.4 / 7.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-97.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-112.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.5 (25.96%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 75.19%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$164.59 / $72.34Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$69.86 / $118.86Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

52.8Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-115.01%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.40xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$68.36Range

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