US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish77%
Monthly Downside probability 77%Bearish

BABA 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $121.59 and stabilize above resistance $192.67.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $192.67 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.7, MACD -5.376

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $26.19 (24.74%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$117.38Bearish
EMA 21$121.59Bearish
EMA 50$127.36Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.7 · MACD -5.376

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $26.19 · BB 68.23%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 63.7 · OBV -93.09%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$66.63 - $192.67

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+106.77% · 4.3 ATR above latest close

$218.86
Nearest resistance

+82.02% · 3.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$192.67
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$105.85
Nearest support

-37.05% · 1.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$66.63
Deeper support zone

-61.8% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

$40.44
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$79.66 - $132.04

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.9 / 22.8 / 21.9Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$35.88Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$133.57 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$26.19 (24.74%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 68.23%

21%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$169.35 / $74.13Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$79.66 / $132.04Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.376Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.8 / 17.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-99.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

63.7Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-93.09%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.06xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.9 / 22.8 / 21.9Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$35.88Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$133.57 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.376Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.8 / 17.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-99.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$26.19 (24.74%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 68.23%

21%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$169.35 / $74.13Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$79.66 / $132.04Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

63.7Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-93.09%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.06xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

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