US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish92%
Monthly Downside probability 92%Bearish

BABA 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $121.04 and stabilize above resistance $192.67.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $192.67 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 44.2, MACD -5.762

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $26.85 (26.9%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$116.04Bearish
EMA 21$121.04Bearish
EMA 50$127.12Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 44.2 · MACD -5.762

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $26.85 · BB 69.55%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 62.4 · OBV -99.70%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$66.63 - $192.67

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+119.94% · 4.5 ATR above latest close

$219.52
Nearest resistance

+93.04% · 3.5 ATR above · 34-bar high

$192.67
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$99.81
Nearest support

-33.24% · 1.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$66.63
Deeper support zone

-60.14% · 2.2 ATR below latest close

$39.78
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$72.96 - $126.66

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.9 / 22.3 / 23.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$31.64Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$133.57 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

8%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$26.85 (26.9%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 69.55%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$170.62 / $71.71Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$72.96 / $126.66Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.2Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.762Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

7.8 / 15.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-92.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-109.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

62.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-99.70%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.42xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.9 / 22.3 / 23.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$31.64Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$133.57 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

8%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.2Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.762Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

7.8 / 15.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-92.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-109.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$26.85 (26.9%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 69.55%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$170.62 / $71.71Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$72.96 / $126.66Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

62.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-99.70%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.42xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

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