US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 monthRange48%
Monthly Range probability 96%Range

BABA 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Break either side of $66.63 - $192.67 with volume.

Invalidation Trigger

A trend close outside the ATR band changes the range thesis.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 49.0, MACD -4.454

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $27.5 (23.04%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$125.14Bearish
EMA 21$125.02Bearish
EMA 50$129.21Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 49.0 · MACD -4.454

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $27.5 · BB 66.75%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 70.6 · OBV -73.57%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$66.63 - $192.67

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+84.49% · 3.7 ATR above latest close

$220.17
Nearest resistance

+61.45% · 2.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$192.67
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$119.34
Nearest support

-44.17% · 1.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$66.63
Deeper support zone

-67.21% · 2.9 ATR below latest close

$39.13
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$91.84 - $146.84

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

27.2 / 25.0 / 20.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$48.11Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$134.43 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

35%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$27.5 (23.04%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 66.75%

35%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$176.73 / $74.06Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$91.84 / $146.84Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-4.454Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.2 / 20.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-36.9Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

70.6Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-73.57%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.50xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

27.2 / 25.0 / 20.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$48.11Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$134.43 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

35%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-4.454Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.2 / 20.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-36.9Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 8Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$27.5 (23.04%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 66.75%

35%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$176.73 / $74.06Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$91.84 / $146.84Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

70.6Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-73.57%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.50xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

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