US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish61%
Monthly Downside probability 61%Bearish

BABA 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $124.71 and stabilize above resistance $192.67.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $192.67 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 47.3, MACD -5.078

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $27.03 (24.01%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$124.65Bearish
EMA 21$124.71Bearish
EMA 50$129.23Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 47.3 · MACD -5.078

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $27.03 · BB 75.45%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 65.1 · OBV -54.20%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$66.63 - $192.67

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+95.12% · 4.0 ATR above latest close

$219.7
Nearest resistance

+71.11% · 3.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$192.67
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$112.6
Nearest support

-40.83% · 1.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$66.63
Deeper support zone

-64.83% · 2.7 ATR below latest close

$39.6
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$85.57 - $139.63

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $146.87, invalidation $103.71

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.2 / 23.3 / 20.7Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$23.39Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$134.39 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

29%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$27.03 (24.01%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 75.45%

32%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$179.77 / $70.44Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$85.57 / $139.63Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.078Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

20.5 / 17.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-79.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-80.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 7Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

65.1Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-54.20%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.32xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $146.87, invalidation $103.71

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.2 / 23.3 / 20.7Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$23.39Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$134.39 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

29%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.078Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

20.5 / 17.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-79.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-80.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 7Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$27.03 (24.01%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 75.45%

32%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$179.77 / $70.44Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$85.57 / $139.63Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

65.1Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-54.20%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.32xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

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