US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish65%
Monthly Downside probability 65%Bearish

BABA 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $123.33 and stabilize above resistance $192.67.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $192.67 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 46.5, MACD -5.048

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $26.95 (24.66%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$121.07Bearish
EMA 21$123.33Bearish
EMA 50$128.3Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.5 · MACD -5.048

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $26.95 · BB 64.83%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 67.9 · OBV -89.36%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$66.63 - $192.67

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+100.93% · 4.1 ATR above latest close

$219.62
Nearest resistance

+76.28% · 3.1 ATR above · 34-bar high

$192.67
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$109.3
Nearest support

-39.04% · 1.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$66.63
Deeper support zone

-63.7% · 2.6 ATR below latest close

$39.68
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$82.35 - $136.25

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

26.2 / 25.6 / 20.6Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$36.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$134.91 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$26.95 (24.66%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 64.83%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$173.05 / $74.12Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$82.35 / $136.25Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.048Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.2 / 23.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-92.0Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

67.9Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-89.36%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.18xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $91.99, invalidation $146.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

26.2 / 25.6 / 20.6Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$36.59Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$134.91 / $125.34Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.048Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.2 / 23.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-92.0Range
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$26.95 (24.66%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 64.83%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$173.05 / $74.12Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$82.35 / $136.25Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

67.9Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-89.36%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.18xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.63Range

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