US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish59%
Monthly Downside probability 59%Bearish

BABA 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $126.77 and stabilize above resistance $192.67.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $192.67 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 43.8, MACD -3.716

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $26.43 (25.77%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$129.56Bearish
EMA 21$126.77Bearish
EMA 50$132.11Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 43.8 · MACD -3.716

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $26.43 · BB 79.37%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 66.5 · OBV -39.16%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$66.67 - $192.67

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+113.64% · 4.4 ATR above latest close

$219.1
Nearest resistance

+87.87% · 3.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$192.67
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$102.56
Nearest support

-34.99% · 1.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$66.67
Deeper support zone

-60.76% · 2.4 ATR below latest close

$40.24
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$76.12 - $128.99

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $181.07, invalidation $103.71

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.8 / 23.9 / 18.5Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$29.66Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$139.77 / $125.35Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

20%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$26.43 (25.77%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 79.37%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$186.13 / $68.34Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$76.12 / $128.99Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.67Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.716Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

0.7 / 22.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-99.3Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-59.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

66.5Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-39.16%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.48xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $181.07, invalidation $103.71

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.8 / 23.9 / 18.5Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$29.66Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$139.77 / $125.35Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

20%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.716Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

0.7 / 22.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-99.3Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-59.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$26.43 (25.77%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 79.37%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$186.13 / $68.34Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$76.12 / $128.99Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

66.5Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-39.16%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.48xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$192.67Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$66.67Range

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