US stock / ETF

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABA · NYSE · USD

1 hourBearish86%
1h Downside probability 86%Bearish

BABA 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $97.18 and stabilize above resistance $103.43.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $103.43 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 25.1, MACD -0.106

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.15 (1.22%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$95.05Bearish
EMA 21$97.18Bearish
EMA 50$100.2Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 25.1 · MACD -0.106

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.15 · BB 12.30%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 29.4 · OBV -70.15%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$93.42 - $103.43

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+10.53% · 8.6 ATR above latest close

$104.58
Nearest resistance

+9.31% · 7.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$103.43
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$94.62
Nearest support

-1.27% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$93.42
Deeper support zone

-2.49% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$92.27
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$93.47 - $95.77

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $93.42, invalidation $97.49

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

88.6 / 1.9 / 58.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$91.88Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$96.75 / $99.94Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.15 (1.22%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 12.30%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$98.8 / $95.27Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$93.47 / $95.77Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$103.43Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$93.42Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

25.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.106Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

15.3 / 13.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-84.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-75.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

29.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-70.15%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.91xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $93.42, invalidation $97.49

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

88.6 / 1.9 / 58.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$91.88Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$96.75 / $99.94Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

25.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.106Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

15.3 / 13.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-84.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-75.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.15 (1.22%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 12.30%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$98.8 / $95.27Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$93.47 / $95.77Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

29.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-70.15%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.91xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$103.43Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$93.42Range

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