US stock / ETF

Ares Management Corporation

ARES · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

ARES 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $128.59 and stabilize above resistance $141.52.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $141.52 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 39.5, MACD 0.078

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $2.75 (2.2%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$125.99Bearish
EMA 21$128.59Bearish
EMA 50$132.77Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 39.5 · MACD 0.078

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.75 · BB 9.91%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 38.1 · OBV 4.71%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$121.29 - $141.52

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+15.12% · 6.9 ATR above latest close

$144.27
Nearest resistance

+12.93% · 5.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$141.52
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$125.32
Nearest support

-3.22% · 1.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$121.29
Deeper support zone

-5.41% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

$118.54
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$122.57 - $128.07

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $121.29, invalidation $127.66

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

30.9 / 17.9 / 41.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$118.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$127.48 / $133.23Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

31%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.75 (2.2%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 9.91%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$132.62 / $124.15Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$122.57 / $128.07Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$141.52Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$121.29Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

39.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.078Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

35.3 / 40.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-64.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-88.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

4.71%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.52xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $121.29, invalidation $127.66

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

30.9 / 17.9 / 41.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$118.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$127.48 / $133.23Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

31%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

39.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.078Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

35.3 / 40.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-64.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-88.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.75 (2.2%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 9.91%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$132.62 / $124.15Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$122.57 / $128.07Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

4.71%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.52xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$141.52Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$121.29Range

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