US stock / ETF

United Parcel Service, Inc.

UPS · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish74%
4h Downside probability 74%Bearish

UPS 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $106.77 and stabilize above resistance $111.2.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $111.2 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.2, MACD -0.369

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $1.97 (1.88%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$106.28Bearish
EMA 21$106.77Bearish
EMA 50$105.89Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.2 · MACD -0.369

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.97 · BB 7.09%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 31.8 · OBV -10.44%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$102.86 - $111.2

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+7.57% · 4.0 ATR above latest close

$113.17
Nearest resistance

+5.69% · 3.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$111.2
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$105.21
Nearest support

-2.23% · 1.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$102.86
Deeper support zone

-4.11% · 2.2 ATR below latest close

$100.89
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$103.24 - $107.18

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $108.61, invalidation $104.85

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

12.5 / 23.9 / 37.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$98.69Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$106.33 / $102.54Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

30%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.97 (1.88%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 7.09%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$111.1 / $102.44Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$103.24 / $107.18Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$111.2Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$102.86Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.2Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.369Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.8 / 28.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-77.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

31.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-10.44%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.57xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $108.61, invalidation $104.85

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

12.5 / 23.9 / 37.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$98.69Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$106.33 / $102.54Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

30%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.2Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.369Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.8 / 28.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-77.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.97 (1.88%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 7.09%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$111.1 / $102.44Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$103.24 / $107.18Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

31.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-10.44%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.57xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$111.2Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$102.86Range

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