US stock / ETF

United Parcel Service, Inc.

UPS · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish73%
4h Downside probability 73%Bearish

UPS 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $93.97 and stabilize above resistance $96.89.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $96.89 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 38.3, MACD 0.073

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $0.6482 (0.7%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$93.63Bearish
EMA 21$93.97Bearish
EMA 50$95.49Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 38.3 · MACD 0.073

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $0.6482 · BB 1.86%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 46.1 · OBV -8.71%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$91.65 - $96.89

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+4.83% · 6.9 ATR above latest close

$97.54
Nearest resistance

+4.14% · 5.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$96.89
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$93.04
Nearest support

-1.49% · 2.1 ATR below · 34-bar low

$91.65
Deeper support zone

-2.19% · 3.1 ATR below latest close

$91
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$92.39 - $93.69

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $94.72, invalidation $93.33

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.2 / 15.1 / 25.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$91.07Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$93.45 / $97.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.6482 (0.7%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 1.86%

5%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$95.23 / $92.64Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$92.39 / $93.69Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$96.89Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$91.65Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

38.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.073Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.2 / 27.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-190.0Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

46.1Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-8.71%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.79xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $94.72, invalidation $93.33

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.2 / 15.1 / 25.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$91.07Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$93.45 / $97.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

38.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.073Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.2 / 27.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-190.0Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.6482 (0.7%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 1.86%

5%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$95.23 / $92.64Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$92.39 / $93.69Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

46.1Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-8.71%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.79xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$96.89Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$91.65Range

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