US stock / ETF

United Parcel Service, Inc.

UPS · NYSE · USD

1 weekBearish57%
Weekly Downside probability 57%Bearish

UPS 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $106.26 and stabilize above resistance $122.41.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $122.41 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.3, MACD -0.807

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $6.21 (6.09%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$106.39Bearish
EMA 21$106.26Bearish
EMA 50$105.25Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.3 · MACD -0.807

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $6.21 · BB 17.56%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 34.5 · OBV 28.40%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$93.86 - $122.41

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+26.09% · 4.3 ATR above latest close

$128.62
Nearest resistance

+20% · 3.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$122.41
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$102.01
Nearest support

-7.99% · 1.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$93.86
Deeper support zone

-14.08% · 2.3 ATR below latest close

$87.65
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$95.8 - $108.22

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $118.42, invalidation $93.86

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

15.7 / 22.4 / 22.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$84.86Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$108.01 / $102.21Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

33%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$6.21 (6.09%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 17.56%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$118.26 / $94.43Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$95.8 / $108.22Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$122.41Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$93.86Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.807Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

33.2 / 39.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-66.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-67.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

28.40%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.70xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $118.42, invalidation $93.86

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

15.7 / 22.4 / 22.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$84.86Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$108.01 / $102.21Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

33%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.807Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

33.2 / 39.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-66.8Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-67.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$6.21 (6.09%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 17.56%

26%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$118.26 / $94.43Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$95.8 / $108.22Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

28.40%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.70xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$122.41Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$93.86Range

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