US stock / ETF

The Travelers Companies, Inc.

TRV · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish58%
4h Downside probability 58%Bearish

TRV 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $396.59 and stabilize above resistance $407.62.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $407.62 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 49.3, MACD -1.461

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $3.84 (0.97%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$396.78Bearish
EMA 21$396.59Bearish
EMA 50$389.84Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 49.3 · MACD -1.461

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.84 · BB 3.08%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 27.9 · OBV -0.80%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$363.5 - $407.62

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bullish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+4.16% · 4.3 ATR above latest close

$411.46
Nearest resistance

+3.19% · 3.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$407.62
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$395.03
Nearest support

-7.98% · 8.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$363.5
Deeper support zone

-8.95% · 9.2 ATR below latest close

$359.66
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$391.19 - $398.87

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $393.51, invalidation $399.34

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

40.7 / 23.6 / 27.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$380.95Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$396.79 / $385.37Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

28%Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.84 (0.97%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.08%

13%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$404.49 / $389.01Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$391.19 / $398.87Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$407.62Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$363.5Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.461Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.4 / 29.1Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.6Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-172.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

27.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-0.80%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.86xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $393.51, invalidation $399.34

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

40.7 / 23.6 / 27.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$380.95Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$396.79 / $385.37Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

28%Bullish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.461Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

30.4 / 29.1Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-69.6Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-172.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.84 (0.97%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.08%

13%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$404.49 / $389.01Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$391.19 / $398.87Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

27.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-0.80%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.86xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$407.62Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$363.5Range

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