US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

SPY 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $768.1 and stabilize above resistance $779.25.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $779.25 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 40.9, MACD -0.422

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $2.83 (0.37%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$765.97Bearish
EMA 21$768.1Bearish
EMA 50$767.38Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 40.9 · MACD -0.422

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.83 · BB 1.92%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 36.8 · OBV -6.33%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$761.99 - $779.25

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+2.19% · 5.9 ATR above latest close

$782.08
Nearest resistance

+1.82% · 4.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$779.25
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$765.29
Nearest support

-0.43% · 1.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$761.99
Deeper support zone

-0.8% · 2.2 ATR below latest close

$759.16
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$762.46 - $768.12

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $761.99, invalidation $772.47

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.9 / 20.9 / 21.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$756.8Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$768.38 / $770.62Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

20%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.83 (0.37%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 1.92%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$773.8 / $762.19Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$762.46 / $768.12Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$779.25Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$761.99Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.422Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

31.5 / 35.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-68.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-74.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

36.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.33%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.66xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $761.99, invalidation $772.47

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.9 / 20.9 / 21.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$756.8Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$768.38 / $770.62Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

20%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.422Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

31.5 / 35.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-68.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-74.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.83 (0.37%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 1.92%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$773.8 / $762.19Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$762.46 / $768.12Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

36.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.33%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.66xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$779.25Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$761.99Range

Related Forecasts