US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

SPY 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $742.13 and stabilize above resistance $756.7.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $756.7 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 41.3, MACD -1.275

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $5.36 (0.73%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$739.37Bearish
EMA 21$742.13Bearish
EMA 50$742.82Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 41.3 · MACD -1.275

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $5.36 · BB 3.68%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 18.8 · OBV -36.17%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$722.61 - $756.7

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.76% · 5.1 ATR above latest close

$762.06
Nearest resistance

+3.03% · 4.1 ATR above · 34-bar high

$756.7
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$734.47
Nearest support

-1.62% · 2.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$722.61
Deeper support zone

-2.35% · 3.2 ATR below latest close

$717.24
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$729.11 - $739.83

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $732.46, invalidation $750.14

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

35.4 / 10.6 / 44.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$719.68Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$740.65 / $741.5Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

12%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$5.36 (0.73%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.68%

13%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$752.31 / $731.76Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$729.11 / $739.83Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$756.7Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$722.61Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.275Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.1 / 15.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-117.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

18.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-36.17%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.51xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $732.46, invalidation $750.14

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

35.4 / 10.6 / 44.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$719.68Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$740.65 / $741.5Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

12%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.275Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.1 / 15.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-117.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$5.36 (0.73%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.68%

13%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$752.31 / $731.76Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$729.11 / $739.83Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

18.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-36.17%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.51xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$756.7Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$722.61Range

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