US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

4 hoursBearish78%
4h Downside probability 78%Bearish

SPY 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $775 and stabilize above resistance $781.52.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $781.52 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 37.1, MACD -1.252

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $2.6 (0.34%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$773.55Bearish
EMA 21$775Bearish
EMA 50$773.27Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 37.1 · MACD -1.252

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.6 · BB 1.57%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 44.5 · OBV -10.52%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$766.71 - $781.52

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+1.95% · 5.8 ATR above latest close

$784.12
Nearest resistance

+1.61% · 4.8 ATR above · 34-bar high

$781.52
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$769.13
Nearest support

-0.31% · 0.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$766.71
Deeper support zone

-0.65% · 1.9 ATR below latest close

$764.11
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$766.53 - $771.73

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $780.5, invalidation $776.24

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

24.7 / 14.9 / 37.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$760.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$773.8 / $770.16Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.6 (0.34%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 1.57%

-6%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$780.72 / $769.29Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$766.53 / $771.73Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$781.52Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$766.71Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.252Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

16.9 / 12.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-83.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-202.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-10.52%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.78xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $780.5, invalidation $776.24

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

24.7 / 14.9 / 37.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$760.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$773.8 / $770.16Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.252Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

16.9 / 12.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-83.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-202.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.6 (0.34%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 1.57%

-6%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$780.72 / $769.29Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$766.53 / $771.73Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-10.52%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.78xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$781.52Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$766.71Range

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