US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

4 hoursBullish75%
4h Upside probability 75%Bullish

SPY 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Hold above $739.35 and reclaim $755.6.

Invalidation Trigger

Lose $739.35 and MACD turns lower again.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is above EMA21

4h
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 55.5, MACD -0.193

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $2.85 (0.38%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$751.16Bullish
EMA 21$749.91Bullish
EMA 50$747.27Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 55.5 · MACD -0.193

Momentum is strong

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $2.85 · BB 2.10%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 79.3 · OBV 123.29%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$739.35 - $755.6

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bullish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+0.91% · 2.4 ATR above latest close

$758.45
Nearest resistance

+0.53% · 1.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$755.6
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$751.6
Nearest support

-1.63% · 4.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$739.35
Deeper support zone

-2.01% · 5.3 ATR below latest close

$736.5
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$748.75 - $754.45

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $746.91, invalidation $754.24

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

12.7 / 27.9 / 23.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$742.32Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$749.37 / $736.09Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

75%Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.85 (0.38%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.10%

63%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$756.39 / $743.66Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$748.75 / $754.45Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$755.6Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$739.35Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is strong

55.5Bullish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.193Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

54.0 / 64.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-46.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

51.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

79.3Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

123.29%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.54xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $746.91, invalidation $754.24

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

12.7 / 27.9 / 23.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$742.32Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$749.37 / $736.09Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

75%Bullish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is strong

55.5Bullish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.193Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

54.0 / 64.3Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-46.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

51.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.85 (0.38%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.10%

63%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$756.39 / $743.66Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$748.75 / $754.45Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

79.3Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

123.29%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.54xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$755.6Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$739.35Range

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