US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

4 hoursBearish68%
4h Downside probability 68%Bearish

SPY 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $766.09 and stabilize above resistance $780.5.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $780.5 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 37.0, MACD -0.636

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $3.63 (0.48%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$763.2Bearish
EMA 21$766.09Bearish
EMA 50$768.64Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 37.0 · MACD -0.636

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.63 · BB 1.87%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 46.4 · OBV 2.32%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$758.83 - $780.5

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.1% · 6.5 ATR above latest close

$784.13
Nearest resistance

+2.62% · 5.5 ATR above · 34-bar high

$780.5
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$760.59
Nearest support

-0.23% · 0.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$758.83
Deeper support zone

-0.71% · 1.5 ATR below latest close

$755.2
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$756.96 - $764.22

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $774.44, invalidation $758.83

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

15.5 / 10.2 / 27.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$748.78Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$766.51 / $769.94Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

11%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.63 (0.48%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 1.87%

8%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$773.57 / $758.28Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$756.96 / $764.22Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$780.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$758.83Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.636Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

11.3 / 16.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-88.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-142.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

46.4Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

2.32%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.68xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $774.44, invalidation $758.83

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

15.5 / 10.2 / 27.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$748.78Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$766.51 / $769.94Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

11%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

37.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.636Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

11.3 / 16.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-88.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-142.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.63 (0.48%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 1.87%

8%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$773.57 / $758.28Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$756.96 / $764.22Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

46.4Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

2.32%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.68xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$780.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$758.83Range

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