US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

12 hoursBearish89%
12h Downside probability 89%Bearish

SPY 12H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

12h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $768.12 and stabilize above resistance $781.52.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $781.52 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

12h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 38.1, MACD -1.041

12h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $5.75 (0.76%)

12h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$765.03Bearish
EMA 21$768.12Bearish
EMA 50$768.87Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 38.1 · MACD -1.041

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $5.75 · BB 3.01%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 38.6 · OBV -33.36%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$758.79 - $781.52

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.54% · 4.7 ATR above latest close

$787.27
Nearest resistance

+2.79% · 3.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$781.52
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$760.33
Nearest support

-0.2% · 0.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$758.79
Deeper support zone

-0.96% · 1.3 ATR below latest close

$753.04
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$754.58 - $766.08

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $774.44, invalidation $763.71

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.5 / 16.0 / 30.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$745.41Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$768.29 / $769.75Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

7%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$5.75 (0.76%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.01%

10%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$778.48 / $757.5Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$754.58 / $766.08Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$781.52Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$758.79Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

38.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.041Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

9.6 / 12.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-90.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-135.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-33.36%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.95xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $774.44, invalidation $763.71

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.5 / 16.0 / 30.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$745.41Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$768.29 / $769.75Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

7%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

38.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.041Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

9.6 / 12.2Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-90.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-135.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$5.75 (0.76%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.01%

10%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$778.48 / $757.5Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$754.58 / $766.08Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-33.36%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.95xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$781.52Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$758.79Range

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