US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

1 hourBearish89%
1h Downside probability 89%Bearish

SPY 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $763.08 and stabilize above resistance $774.44.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $774.44 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 39.4, MACD -0.004

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.92 (0.25%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$761.42Bearish
EMA 21$763.08Bearish
EMA 50$765.46Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 39.4 · MACD -0.004

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.92 · BB 0.93%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 60.9 · OBV 0.13%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$758.83 - $774.44

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+2.11% · 8.3 ATR above latest close

$776.36
Nearest resistance

+1.86% · 7.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$774.44
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$760.33
Nearest support

-0.2% · 0.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$758.83
Deeper support zone

-0.45% · 1.8 ATR below latest close

$756.91
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$758.41 - $762.25

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $758.83, invalidation $763.4

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

21.5 / 16.9 / 25.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$754.3Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$762.54 / $766.64Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.92 (0.25%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 0.93%

15%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$767.26 / $758.65Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$758.41 / $762.25Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$774.44Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$758.83Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

39.4Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.004Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

24.2 / 48.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-75.8Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-118.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

60.9Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

0.13%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.72xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $758.83, invalidation $763.4

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

21.5 / 16.9 / 25.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$754.3Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$762.54 / $766.64Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

39.4Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.004Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

24.2 / 48.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-75.8Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-118.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.92 (0.25%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 0.93%

15%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$767.26 / $758.65Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$758.41 / $762.25Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

60.9Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

0.13%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.72xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$774.44Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$758.83Range

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