US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

1 hourBearish71%
1h Downside probability 71%Bearish

SPY 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $773.81 and stabilize above resistance $780.5.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $780.5 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 28.3, MACD -0.937

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.9 (0.25%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$770.72Bearish
EMA 21$773.81Bearish
EMA 50$775.63Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 28.3 · MACD -0.937

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.9 · BB 2.13%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 43.3 · OBV 0.89%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$766.71 - $780.5

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+1.73% · 7.0 ATR above latest close

$782.4
Nearest resistance

+1.48% · 6.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$780.5
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$769.13
Nearest support

-0.31% · 1.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$766.71
Deeper support zone

-0.56% · 2.3 ATR below latest close

$764.81
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$767.23 - $771.03

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $780.5, invalidation $766.71

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

46.0 / 10.6 / 48.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$762.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$773.61 / $773.88Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.9 (0.25%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.13%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$778.05 / $769.28Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$767.23 / $771.03Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$780.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$766.71Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

28.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.937Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.5 / 14.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-107.7Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

43.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

0.89%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

4.29xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $780.5, invalidation $766.71

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

46.0 / 10.6 / 48.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$762.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$773.61 / $773.88Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

28.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.937Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.5 / 14.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-107.7Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.9 (0.25%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.13%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$778.05 / $769.28Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$767.23 / $771.03Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

43.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

0.89%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

4.29xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$780.5Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$766.71Range

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