US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

1 hourBearish85%
1h Downside probability 85%Bearish

SPY 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $738.08 and stabilize above resistance $750.84.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $750.84 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 41.8, MACD -0.018

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $3.32 (0.45%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$735.44Bearish
EMA 21$738.08Bearish
EMA 50$741.33Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 41.8 · MACD -0.018

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.32 · BB 2.28%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 18.1 · OBV -5.14%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$731.31 - $750.84

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+2.68% · 5.9 ATR above latest close

$754.16
Nearest resistance

+2.23% · 4.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$750.84
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$734.47
Nearest support

-0.43% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$731.31
Deeper support zone

-0.88% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$727.99
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$731.15 - $737.79

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $739.93, invalidation $734.12

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

33.4 / 23.6 / 32.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$723.77Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$738.17 / $743.99Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

22%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.32 (0.45%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.28%

31%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$744.18 / $731.59Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$731.15 / $737.79Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$750.84Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$731.31Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.018Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

36.7 / 22.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-63.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-81.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

18.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-5.14%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.61xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $739.93, invalidation $734.12

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

33.4 / 23.6 / 32.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$723.77Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$738.17 / $743.99Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

22%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.018Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

36.7 / 22.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-63.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-81.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.32 (0.45%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 2.28%

31%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$744.18 / $731.59Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$731.15 / $737.79Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

18.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-5.14%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.61xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$750.84Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$731.31Range

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