US stock / ETF

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY · NYSE Arca · USD

1 hourBearish62%
1h Downside probability 62%Bearish

SPY 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $765.64 and stabilize above resistance $770.63.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $770.63 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 46.8, MACD 0.252

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.23 (0.16%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$765.56Bearish
EMA 21$765.64Bearish
EMA 50$767.05Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.8 · MACD 0.252

Neutral zone

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $1.23 · BB 0.61%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 44.9 · OBV -4.71%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$761.99 - $770.63

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+0.86% · 5.3 ATR above latest close

$771.86
Nearest resistance

+0.7% · 4.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$770.63
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$765.29
Nearest support

-0.43% · 2.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$761.99
Deeper support zone

-0.59% · 3.7 ATR below latest close

$760.76
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$764.06 - $766.52

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $767.33, invalidation $765.29

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.8 / 43.5 / 14.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$761.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$765.93 / $767.23Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

62%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.23 (0.16%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 0.61%

60%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$767.97 / $763.24Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$764.06 / $766.52Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$770.63Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$761.99Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.8Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.252Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

55.9 / 63.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-44.1Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

36.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-4.71%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.15xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $767.33, invalidation $765.29

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

29.8 / 43.5 / 14.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$761.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$765.93 / $767.23Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

62%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.8Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.252Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

55.9 / 63.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-44.1Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

36.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.23 (0.16%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 0.61%

60%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$767.97 / $763.24Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$764.06 / $766.52Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-4.71%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.15xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$770.63Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$761.99Range

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