US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

PGR 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $215.1 and stabilize above resistance $238.64.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $238.64 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 32.6, MACD -0.715

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $4.09 (1.97%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$208.78Bearish
EMA 21$215.1Bearish
EMA 50$219.12Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 32.6 · MACD -0.715

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.09 · BB 22.14%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 28.7 · OBV -3.88%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$203.11 - $238.64

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+16.69% · 8.5 ATR above latest close

$242.73
Nearest resistance

+14.73% · 7.5 ATR above · 34-bar high

$238.64
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$208.01
Nearest support

-2.36% · 1.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$203.11
Deeper support zone

-4.32% · 2.2 ATR below latest close

$199.02
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$203.92 - $212.1

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $210.77, invalidation $203.11

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

52.7 / 16.0 / 53.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$200.04Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$213 / $220.88Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

15%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.09 (1.97%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 22.14%

30%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$220 / $209.41Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$203.92 / $212.1Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$238.64Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$203.11Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

32.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.715Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.2 / 17.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-55.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-3.88%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.33xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $210.77, invalidation $203.11

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

52.7 / 16.0 / 53.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$200.04Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$213 / $220.88Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

15%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

32.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.715Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

17.2 / 17.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-82.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-55.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.09 (1.97%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 22.14%

30%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$220 / $209.41Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$203.92 / $212.1Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-3.88%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.33xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$238.64Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$203.11Range

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