US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBullish59%
4h Upside probability 59%Bullish

PGR 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Hold above $201.02 and reclaim $230.28.

Invalidation Trigger

Lose $201.02 and MACD turns lower again.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is above EMA21

4h
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 53.2, MACD -0.447

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $2.15 (0.95%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$226.71Bearish
EMA 21$225.12Bullish
EMA 50$221.38Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 53.2 · MACD -0.447

Neutral zone

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $2.15 · BB 5.92%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 69.8 · OBV 978.07%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$201.02 - $230.28

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bullish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.14% · 3.3 ATR above latest close

$232.44
Nearest resistance

+2.18% · 2.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$230.28
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$225.37
Nearest support

-10.8% · 11.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$201.02
Deeper support zone

-11.76% · 12.3 ATR below latest close

$198.87
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$223.22 - $227.52

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $229.73, invalidation $226.46

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.2 / 32.9 / 35.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$219.87Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$224.7 / $215.65Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

56%Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.15 (0.95%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 5.92%

49%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$229.02 / $221.54Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$223.22 / $227.52Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$230.28Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$201.02Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

53.2Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.447Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

47.0 / 50.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-53.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

0.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

69.8Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

978.07%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.64xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $229.73, invalidation $226.46

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

23.2 / 32.9 / 35.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$219.87Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$224.7 / $215.65Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

56%Bullish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

53.2Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.447Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

47.0 / 50.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-53.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

0.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$2.15 (0.95%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 5.92%

49%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$229.02 / $221.54Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$223.22 / $227.52Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

69.8Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

978.07%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.64xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$230.28Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$201.02Range

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