US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBullish91%
4h Upside probability 91%Bullish

PGR 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Hold above $201.18 and reclaim $215.64.

Invalidation Trigger

Lose $201.18 and MACD turns lower again.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is above EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBullish
Momentum improving

RSI 61.0, MACD 0.433

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.6 (0.75%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$213.25Bullish
EMA 21$211.46Bullish
EMA 50$211.18Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 61.0 · MACD 0.433

Momentum is strong

Strength
Bullish
Volatility
ATR $1.6 · BB 4.61%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 62.4 · OBV 27.72%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$201.18 - $215.64

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bullish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+1.46% · 1.9 ATR above latest close

$217.24
Nearest resistance

+0.71% · 0.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$215.64
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$214.12
Nearest support

-6.04% · 8.1 ATR below · 34-bar low

$201.18
Deeper support zone

-6.79% · 9.1 ATR below latest close

$199.58
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$212.52 - $215.72

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $213.66, invalidation $211.76

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

12.2 / 25.0 / 28.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$209.23Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$211.59 / $210.33Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

85%Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.6 (0.75%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.61%

83%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$214.79 / $208.31Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$212.52 / $215.72Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$215.64Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$201.18Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is strong

61.0Bullish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.433Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

80.3 / 87.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Overbought zone

-19.7Bearish
CCI (20)

Strong expansion

113.6Bullish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

sell 9Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

62.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

27.72%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.20xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $213.66, invalidation $211.76

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

12.2 / 25.0 / 28.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$209.23Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$211.59 / $210.33Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

85%Bullish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is strong

61.0Bullish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

0.433Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

80.3 / 87.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Overbought zone

-19.7Bearish
CCI (20)

Strong expansion

113.6Bullish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

sell 9Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.6 (0.75%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.61%

83%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$214.79 / $208.31Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$212.52 / $215.72Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

62.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

27.72%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.20xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$215.64Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$201.18Range

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