US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBearish78%
4h Downside probability 78%Bearish

PGR 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $217.94 and stabilize above resistance $225.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $225 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 40.1, MACD -0.385

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.7 (0.79%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$217.2Bearish
EMA 21$217.94Bearish
EMA 50$217.96Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 40.1 · MACD -0.385

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.7 · BB 3.93%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 55.3 · OBV 70.61%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$212.87 - $225

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+5.09% · 6.5 ATR above latest close

$226.7
Nearest resistance

+4.31% · 5.5 ATR above · 34-bar high

$225
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$215.71
Nearest support

-1.32% · 1.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$212.87
Deeper support zone

-2.1% · 2.7 ATR below latest close

$211.17
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$214.01 - $217.41

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $216.23, invalidation $221.44

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

34.7 / 20.8 / 39.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$210.92Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$217.56 / $218.94Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

21%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.7 (0.79%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.93%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$221.12 / $214.72Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$214.01 / $217.41Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$225Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$212.87Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.385Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

21.3 / 21.1Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-78.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-83.2Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

55.3Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

70.61%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.55xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $216.23, invalidation $221.44

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

34.7 / 20.8 / 39.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$210.92Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$217.56 / $218.94Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

21%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.385Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

21.3 / 21.1Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-78.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-83.2Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.7 (0.79%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.93%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$221.12 / $214.72Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$214.01 / $217.41Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

55.3Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

70.61%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.55xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$225Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$212.87Range

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