US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

4 hoursBullish55%
4h Upside probability 55%Bullish

PGR 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Hold above $203 and reclaim $224.33.

Invalidation Trigger

Lose $203 and MACD turns lower again.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 48.1, MACD -0.842

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.73 (0.79%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$219.57Bearish
EMA 21$218.95Bearish
EMA 50$216.41Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 48.1 · MACD -0.842

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.73 · BB 3.40%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 53.4 · OBV 10.87%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$203 - $224.33

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bullish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.86% · 4.9 ATR above latest close

$226.06
Nearest resistance

+3.07% · 3.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$224.33
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$217.65
Nearest support

-6.73% · 8.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$203
Deeper support zone

-7.53% · 9.5 ATR below latest close

$201.27
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$215.92 - $219.38

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $216.89, invalidation $224.04

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

48.5 / 29.0 / 33.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$213.07Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$217.38 / $213.67Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

10%Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.73 (0.79%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.40%

8%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$222.12 / $216.01Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$215.92 / $219.38Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$224.33Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$203Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.842Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

10.3 / 7.6Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-89.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-147.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

53.4Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

10.87%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.35xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $216.89, invalidation $224.04

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

48.5 / 29.0 / 33.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$213.07Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$217.38 / $213.67Bullish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

10%Bullish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.842Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

10.3 / 7.6Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-89.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-147.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.73 (0.79%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.40%

8%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$222.12 / $216.01Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$215.92 / $219.38Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

53.4Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

10.87%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.35xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$224.33Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$203Range

Related Forecasts