US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish65%
Monthly Downside probability 65%Bearish

PGR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is above EMA21, short trend is constructive

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $218.86 and stabilize above resistance $292.99.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $292.99 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is above EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 52.7, MACD -3.505

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $24.74 (10.97%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$215.02Bullish
EMA 21$218.86Bullish
EMA 50$197.26Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 52.7 · MACD -3.505

Neutral zone

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $24.74 · BB 49.88%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 35.7 · OBV -44.86%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$159.34 - $292.99

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+40.84% · 3.7 ATR above latest close

$317.73
Nearest resistance

+29.87% · 2.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$292.99
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$225.6
Nearest support

-29.37% · 2.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$159.34
Deeper support zone

-40.34% · 3.7 ATR below latest close

$134.6
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$200.86 - $250.34

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $239.38

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

42.0 / 12.9 / 21.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$143.1Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $201.2Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

35%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.74 (10.97%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 49.88%

46%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$267.37 / $170.63Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$200.86 / $250.34Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$159.34Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

52.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.505Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

60.0 / 41.2Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-40.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-32.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

35.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-44.86%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.65xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $239.38

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

42.0 / 12.9 / 21.4Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$143.1Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $201.2Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

35%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

52.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.505Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

60.0 / 41.2Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-40.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-32.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 5Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.74 (10.97%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 49.88%

46%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$267.37 / $170.63Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$200.86 / $250.34Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

35.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-44.86%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.65xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$159.34Range

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