US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish76%
Monthly Downside probability 76%Bearish

PGR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $219.17 and stabilize above resistance $292.99.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $292.99 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 47.5, MACD -7.542

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $24.97 (12.01%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$211.47Bearish
EMA 21$219.17Bearish
EMA 50$194.63Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 47.5 · MACD -7.542

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $24.97 · BB 51.22%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 25.0 · OBV -28.11%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$137.59 - $292.99

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+52.9% · 4.4 ATR above latest close

$317.96
Nearest resistance

+40.89% · 3.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$292.99
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$207.95
Nearest support

-33.84% · 2.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$137.59
Deeper support zone

-45.84% · 3.8 ATR below latest close

$112.62
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$182.98 - $232.92

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $289.96

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

39.8 / 11.4 / 29.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$142.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $199.67Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.97 (12.01%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 51.22%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$271.55 / $167.19Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$182.98 / $232.92Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$137.59Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-7.542Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

18.6 / 16.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-81.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-51.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

25.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-28.11%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.59xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $289.96

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

39.8 / 11.4 / 29.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$142.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $199.67Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-7.542Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

18.6 / 16.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-81.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-51.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.97 (12.01%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 51.22%

27%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$271.55 / $167.19Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$182.98 / $232.92Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

25.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-28.11%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.59xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$137.59Range

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