US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish79%
Monthly Downside probability 79%Bearish

PGR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $218.95 and stabilize above resistance $292.99.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $292.99 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 49.7, MACD -4.725

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $22.91 (10.62%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$213.87Bullish
EMA 21$218.95Bearish
EMA 50$196.43Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 49.7 · MACD -4.725

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $22.91 · BB 52.25%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 33.0 · OBV -39.89%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$149.14 - $292.99

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+46.45% · 4.4 ATR above latest close

$315.9
Nearest resistance

+35.83% · 3.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$292.99
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$215.71
Nearest support

-30.86% · 2.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$149.14
Deeper support zone

-41.48% · 3.9 ATR below latest close

$126.23
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$192.8 - $238.62

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $239.38

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

41.0 / 12.8 / 21.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$153.18Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $200.82Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$22.91 (10.62%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 52.25%

35%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$263.01 / $175.2Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$192.8 / $238.62Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$149.14Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-4.725Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

40.3 / 32.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-59.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-40.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 4Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

33.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-39.89%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.27xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $239.38

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

41.0 / 12.8 / 21.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$153.18Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $200.82Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-4.725Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

40.3 / 32.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-59.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-40.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 4Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$22.91 (10.62%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 52.25%

35%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$263.01 / $175.2Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$192.8 / $238.62Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

33.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-39.89%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.27xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$149.14Range

Related Forecasts