US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish79%
Monthly Downside probability 79%Bearish

PGR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $217.82 and stabilize above resistance $292.99.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $292.99 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 49.4, MACD -4.237

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $23.25 (10.86%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$212.47Bullish
EMA 21$217.82Bearish
EMA 50$196.81Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 49.4 · MACD -4.237

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $23.25 · BB 50.35%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 33.3 · OBV -49.29%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$159.34 - $292.99

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+47.69% · 4.4 ATR above latest close

$316.24
Nearest resistance

+36.83% · 3.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$292.99
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$214.12
Nearest support

-25.58% · 2.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$159.34
Deeper support zone

-36.44% · 3.4 ATR below latest close

$136.09
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$190.87 - $237.37

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $239.38

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

42.3 / 12.3 / 22.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$145.28Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $201.2Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

24%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$23.25 (10.86%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 50.35%

36%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$262.11 / $173.7Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$190.87 / $237.37Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$159.34Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.4Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-4.237Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

41.1 / 34.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-58.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-49.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

33.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-49.29%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.18xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $239.38

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

42.3 / 12.3 / 22.7Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$145.28Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $201.2Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

24%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.4Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-4.237Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

41.1 / 34.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-58.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-49.1Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$23.25 (10.86%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 50.35%

36%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$262.11 / $173.7Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$190.87 / $237.37Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

33.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-49.29%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.18xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$159.34Range

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