US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish79%
Monthly Downside probability 79%Bearish

PGR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $219.32 and stabilize above resistance $292.99.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $292.99 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 50.3, MACD -5.794

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $23.99 (11.02%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$213.44Bullish
EMA 21$219.32Bearish
EMA 50$195.66Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 50.3 · MACD -5.794

Neutral zone

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $23.99 · BB 51.60%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 28.4 · OBV -31.91%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$149.14 - $292.99

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+45.64% · 4.1 ATR above latest close

$316.98
Nearest resistance

+34.62% · 3.1 ATR above · 34-bar high

$292.99
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$217.65
Nearest support

-31.48% · 2.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$149.14
Deeper support zone

-42.5% · 3.9 ATR below latest close

$125.15
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$193.66 - $241.64

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $289.96

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

40.3 / 11.9 / 26.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$143.88Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $199.97Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

27%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$23.99 (11.02%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 51.60%

36%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$266.89 / $172.12Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$193.66 / $241.64Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$149.14Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

50.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.794Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

36.6 / 29.2Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-63.4Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-49.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-31.91%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.55xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $189.2, invalidation $289.96

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

40.3 / 11.9 / 26.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$143.88Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$227.69 / $199.97Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

27%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

50.3Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-5.794Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

36.6 / 29.2Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-63.4Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-49.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$23.99 (11.02%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 51.60%

36%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$266.89 / $172.12Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$193.66 / $241.64Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-31.91%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.55xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.99Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$149.14Range

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