US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 monthBearish54%
Monthly Downside probability 54%Bearish

PGR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is above EMA21, short trend is constructive

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $220.81 and stabilize above resistance $292.98.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $292.98 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is above EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 51.9, MACD -8.240

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $23.16 (10.33%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$213.75Bullish
EMA 21$220.81Bullish
EMA 50$191.07Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 51.9 · MACD -8.240

Neutral zone

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $23.16 · BB 50.39%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 26.8 · OBV -94.81%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$133.17 - $292.98

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+40.98% · 4.0 ATR above latest close

$316.14
Nearest resistance

+30.65% · 3.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$292.98
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$224.25
Nearest support

-40.62% · 3.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$133.17
Deeper support zone

-50.94% · 4.9 ATR below latest close

$110.01
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$201.09 - $247.41

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $292.98, invalidation $230.22

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

40.6 / 7.7 / 32.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$137.01Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$229.93 / $197.64Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

34%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$23.16 (10.33%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 50.39%

37%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$267.83 / $174.4Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$201.09 / $247.41Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.98Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$133.17Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

51.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-8.240Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

34.8 / 15.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-65.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-68.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

26.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-94.81%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.11xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $292.98, invalidation $230.22

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

40.6 / 7.7 / 32.2Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$137.01Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$229.93 / $197.64Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

34%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

51.9Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-8.240Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

34.8 / 15.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-65.2Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-68.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$23.16 (10.33%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 50.39%

37%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$267.83 / $174.4Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$201.09 / $247.41Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

26.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-94.81%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.11xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$292.98Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$133.17Range

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