US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 weekBullish55%
Weekly Upside probability 55%Bullish

PGR 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: price is above EMA21, short trend is constructive

Confirmation Trigger

Hold above $189.2 and reclaim $239.38.

Invalidation Trigger

Lose $189.2 and MACD turns lower again.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is above EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBullish
Momentum improving

RSI 51.0, MACD -0.196

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $11.54 (5.39%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$213.1Bullish
EMA 21$212.6Bullish
EMA 50$216.05Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 51.0 · MACD -0.196

Neutral zone

Strength
Bullish
Volatility
ATR $11.54 · BB 17.81%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 44.4 · OBV 7.10%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$189.2 - $239.38

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+17.19% · 3.2 ATR above latest close

$250.92
Nearest resistance

+11.8% · 2.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$239.38
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$214.12
Nearest support

-11.64% · 2.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$189.2
Deeper support zone

-17.03% · 3.2 ATR below latest close

$177.66
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$202.58 - $225.66

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $200.96, invalidation $225.45

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

17.8 / 20.1 / 27.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$184.39Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$213.75 / $215.11Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

50%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$11.54 (5.39%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 17.81%

52%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$231.68 / $193.58Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$202.58 / $225.66Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$239.38Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$189.2Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

51.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.196Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

34.3 / 23.5Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-65.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

3.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

7.10%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.50xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $200.96, invalidation $225.45

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

17.8 / 20.1 / 27.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$184.39Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$213.75 / $215.11Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

50%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

51.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.196Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

34.3 / 23.5Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-65.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

3.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$11.54 (5.39%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 17.81%

52%Bullish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$231.68 / $193.58Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$202.58 / $225.66Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

44.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

7.10%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.50xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$239.38Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$189.2Range

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