US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

12 hoursBearish59%
12h Downside probability 59%Bearish

PGR 12H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

12h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $217.84 and stabilize above resistance $225.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $225 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

12h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.0, MACD -0.551

12h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $3.18 (1.48%)

12h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$217.67Bearish
EMA 21$217.84Bearish
EMA 50$216.52Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.0 · MACD -0.551

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.18 · BB 4.69%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 57.4 · OBV 8.83%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$203 - $225

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+6.02% · 4.1 ATR above latest close

$228.18
Nearest resistance

+4.54% · 3.1 ATR above · 34-bar high

$225
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$215.22
Nearest support

-5.68% · 3.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$203
Deeper support zone

-7.16% · 4.8 ATR below latest close

$199.82
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$212.04 - $218.4

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $212.87, invalidation $221.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

21.1 / 25.7 / 33.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$206.32Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$216.83 / $214Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.18 (1.48%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.69%

13%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$224.34 / $211.42Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$212.04 / $218.4Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$225Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$203Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.551Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

19.4 / 28.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-80.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-107.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

57.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

8.83%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.55xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $212.87, invalidation $221.87

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

21.1 / 25.7 / 33.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$206.32Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$216.83 / $214Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.0Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.551Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

19.4 / 28.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-80.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-107.3Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$3.18 (1.48%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.69%

13%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$224.34 / $211.42Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$212.04 / $218.4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

57.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

8.83%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.55xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$225Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$203Range

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