US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

12 hoursBearish77%
12h Downside probability 77%Bearish

PGR 12H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

12h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $218.84 and stabilize above resistance $238.64.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $238.64 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

12h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 36.9, MACD -3.776

12h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $4.28 (2.06%)

12h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$213.46Bearish
EMA 21$218.84Bearish
EMA 50$215.42Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 36.9 · MACD -3.776

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.28 · BB 19.84%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 43.1 · OBV 21.68%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$201.83 - $238.64

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+16.78% · 8.2 ATR above latest close

$242.92
Nearest resistance

+14.73% · 7.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$238.64
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$208.01
Nearest support

-2.97% · 1.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$201.83
Deeper support zone

-5.03% · 2.4 ATR below latest close

$197.55
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$203.73 - $212.29

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $203.11, invalidation $235

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.9 / 18.2 / 58.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$193.98Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$219.97 / $214.12Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.28 (2.06%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 19.84%

13%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$228.71 / $208.87Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$203.73 / $212.29Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$238.64Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$201.83Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.776Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

14.3 / 11.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-117.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

43.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

21.68%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.68xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $203.11, invalidation $235

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.9 / 18.2 / 58.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$193.98Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$219.97 / $214.12Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-3.776Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

14.3 / 11.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-117.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$4.28 (2.06%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 19.84%

13%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$228.71 / $208.87Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$203.73 / $212.29Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

43.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

21.68%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.68xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$238.64Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$201.83Range

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