US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 hourBearish84%
1h Downside probability 84%Bearish

PGR 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

1h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $226.45 and stabilize above resistance $230.28.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $230.28 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 45.5, MACD -0.485

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.22 (0.54%)

1h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$225.77Bearish
EMA 21$226.45Bearish
EMA 50$225.1Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 45.5 · MACD -0.485

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.22 · BB 3.05%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 58.5 · OBV -6.49%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$222.46 - $230.28

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+2.72% · 5.0 ATR above latest close

$231.51
Nearest resistance

+2.18% · 4.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$230.28
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$225.37
Nearest support

-1.29% · 2.4 ATR below · 34-bar low

$222.46
Deeper support zone

-1.83% · 3.4 ATR below latest close

$221.24
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$224.15 - $226.59

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $223.83, invalidation $229.26

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.5 / 16.0 / 46.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$221.43Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$226.8 / $224.71Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.22 (0.54%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.05%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$229.15 / $223.75Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$224.15 / $226.59Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$230.28Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$222.46Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.485Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

28.4 / 29.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-71.6Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-81.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

58.5Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.49%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

3.75xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $223.83, invalidation $229.26

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.5 / 16.0 / 46.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$221.43Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$226.8 / $224.71Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

26%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

45.5Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.485Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

28.4 / 29.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-71.6Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-81.6Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.22 (0.54%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.05%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$229.15 / $223.75Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$224.15 / $226.59Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

58.5Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.49%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

3.75xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$230.28Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$222.46Range

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