US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 hourBearish91%
1h Downside probability 91%Bearish

PGR 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $218.06 and stabilize above resistance $221.87.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $221.87 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 29.5, MACD -0.515

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $1.16 (0.54%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$216.87Bearish
EMA 21$218.06Bearish
EMA 50$218.33Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 29.5 · MACD -0.515

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.16 · BB 3.39%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 38.9 · OBV 50.86%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$214.05 - $221.87

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.63% · 6.7 ATR above latest close

$223.03
Nearest resistance

+3.09% · 5.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$221.87
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$215.22
Nearest support

-0.55% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$214.05
Deeper support zone

-1.09% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$212.88
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$214.06 - $216.38

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $216.23, invalidation $217.98

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

45.9 / 10.3 / 52.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$211.47Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$217.18 / $217.96Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

16%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.16 (0.54%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.39%

1%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$220.23 / $215.82Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$214.06 / $216.38Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$221.87Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$214.05Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

29.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.515Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

16.2 / 16.1Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-83.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-162.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

50.86%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.01xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $216.23, invalidation $217.98

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

45.9 / 10.3 / 52.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$211.47Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$217.18 / $217.96Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

16%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

29.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.515Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

16.2 / 16.1Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-83.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-162.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.16 (0.54%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.39%

1%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$220.23 / $215.82Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$214.06 / $216.38Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

50.86%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.01xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$221.87Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$214.05Range

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