US stock / ETF

Progressive Corporation

PGR · NYSE · USD

1 hourBearish88%
1h Downside probability 88%Bearish

PGR 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

1h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $219.69 and stabilize above resistance $224.33.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $224.33 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 36.9, MACD -0.471

1h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $0.8391 (0.39%)

1h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$218.27Bearish
EMA 21$219.69Bearish
EMA 50$219.45Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 36.9 · MACD -0.471

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $0.8391 · BB 4.18%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 50.6 · OBV -7.12%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$216.89 - $224.33

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.45% · 9.0 ATR above latest close

$225.17
Nearest resistance

+3.07% · 8.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$224.33
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$217.65
Nearest support

-0.35% · 0.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$216.89
Deeper support zone

-0.74% · 1.9 ATR below latest close

$216.05
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$216.81 - $218.49

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $216.89, invalidation $218.37

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.1 / 9.9 / 57.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$214.72Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$219.75 / $220.61Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

11%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.8391 (0.39%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.18%

19%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$221.59 / $217.68Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$216.81 / $218.49Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$224.33Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$216.89Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.471Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

12.6 / 12.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-87.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-92.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

50.6Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-7.12%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

4.32xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $216.89, invalidation $218.37

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.1 / 9.9 / 57.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$214.72Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$219.75 / $220.61Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

11%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.9Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.471Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

12.6 / 12.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-87.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-92.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.8391 (0.39%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 4.18%

19%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$221.59 / $217.68Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$216.81 / $218.49Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

50.6Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-7.12%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

4.32xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$224.33Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$216.89Range

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