US stock / ETF

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

ORLY · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish87%
4h Downside probability 87%Bearish

ORLY 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $85.41 and stabilize above resistance $87.48.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $87.48 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 44.5, MACD -0.100

4h
Volatility EnvironmentBullish
Low volatility

ATR is $0.6497 (0.77%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$85.11Bearish
EMA 21$85.41Bearish
EMA 50$85.7Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 44.5 · MACD -0.100

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $0.6497 · BB 3.48%

Low volatility

Strength
Bullish
Volume
MFI 28.8 · OBV -0.57%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$82.84 - $87.48

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+3.8% · 5.0 ATR above latest close

$88.13
Nearest resistance

+3.04% · 4.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$87.48
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$84.9
Nearest support

-2.42% · 3.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$82.84
Deeper support zone

-3.19% · 4.2 ATR below latest close

$82.2
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$84.25 - $85.55

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $86.05, invalidation $83.9

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

19.9 / 23.7 / 19.9Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$82.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$85.33 / $85.16Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

28%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.6497 (0.77%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.48%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$86.82 / $83.97Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$84.25 / $85.55Bullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$87.48Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$82.84Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.100Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

35.0 / 34.7Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-65.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-86.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-0.57%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.25xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $86.05, invalidation $83.9

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

19.9 / 23.7 / 19.9Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$82.76Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$85.33 / $85.16Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

28%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.5Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.100Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

35.0 / 34.7Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-65.0Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-86.3Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$0.6497 (0.77%)Bullish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 3.48%

24%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$86.82 / $83.97Bullish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$84.25 / $85.55Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-0.57%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.25xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$87.48Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$82.84Range

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