US stock / ETF

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

ORLY · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish78%
Weekly Downside probability 78%Bearish

ORLY 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $91.51 and stabilize above resistance $102.43.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $102.43 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 43.1, MACD -0.374

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $4.6 (5.26%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$89.45Bearish
EMA 21$91.51Bearish
EMA 50$92.46Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 43.1 · MACD -0.374

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.6 · BB 12.89%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 62.4 · OBV 4.96%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bullish
Price Levels
$85.41 - $102.43

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+22.3% · 4.2 ATR above latest close

$107.03
Nearest resistance

+17.04% · 3.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$102.43
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$87.52
Nearest support

-2.41% · 0.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$85.41
Deeper support zone

-7.67% · 1.5 ATR below latest close

$80.81
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$82.92 - $92.12

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $85.41, invalidation $100.63

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

15.9 / 16.5 / 17.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$72.04Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$93.39 / $97.06Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$4.6 (5.26%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 12.89%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$101.3 / $81.48Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$82.92 / $92.12Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$102.43Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.41Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.374Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.9 / 20.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-135.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

62.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

4.96%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.29xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $85.41, invalidation $100.63

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

15.9 / 16.5 / 17.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$72.04Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$93.39 / $97.06Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.374Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.9 / 20.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.1Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-135.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$4.6 (5.26%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 12.89%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$101.3 / $81.48Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$82.92 / $92.12Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is strong

62.4Bullish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

4.96%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.29xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$102.43Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$85.41Range

Related Forecasts