US stock / ETF

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

ORLY · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish90%
Weekly Downside probability 90%Bearish

ORLY 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $89.67 and stabilize above resistance $102.11.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $102.11 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.3, MACD -0.029

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $4.89 (5.7%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$88.38Bearish
EMA 21$89.67Bearish
EMA 50$91.15Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.3 · MACD -0.029

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.89 · BB 12.22%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 40.5 · OBV -0.25%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$82.59 - $102.11

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+24.69% · 4.3 ATR above latest close

$107
Nearest resistance

+18.98% · 3.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$102.11
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$85.82
Nearest support

-3.76% · 0.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$82.59
Deeper support zone

-9.47% · 1.7 ATR below latest close

$77.7
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$80.93 - $90.71

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $94.12, invalidation $82.59

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.8 / 15.3 / 22.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$71.38Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$89.98 / $95.65Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$4.89 (5.7%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 12.22%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$99.27 / $79.88Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$80.93 / $90.71Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$102.11Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$82.59Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.029Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

28.0 / 41.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.0Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-125.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-0.25%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.63xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $94.12, invalidation $82.59

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.8 / 15.3 / 22.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$71.38Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$89.98 / $95.65Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

18%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.029Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

28.0 / 41.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.0Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-125.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$4.89 (5.7%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 12.22%

16%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$99.27 / $79.88Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$80.93 / $90.71Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

40.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-0.25%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.63xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$102.11Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$82.59Range

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