US stock / ETF

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

ORLY · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish80%
Weekly Downside probability 80%Bearish

ORLY 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $88.57 and stabilize above resistance $100.63.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $100.63 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 41.7, MACD -0.254

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $4.6 (5.41%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$86.72Bearish
EMA 21$88.57Bearish
EMA 50$90.48Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 41.7 · MACD -0.254

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.6 · BB 10.85%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 42.1 · OBV -0.04%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$82.59 - $100.63

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+23.94% · 4.4 ATR above latest close

$105.22
Nearest resistance

+18.52% · 3.4 ATR above · 34-bar high

$100.63
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$84.9
Nearest support

-2.72% · 0.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$82.59
Deeper support zone

-8.14% · 1.5 ATR below latest close

$77.99
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$80.3 - $89.5

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $94.12, invalidation $83.44

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

16.7 / 14.4 / 20.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$72.86Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$90.19 / $93.91Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

20%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$4.6 (5.41%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 10.85%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$96.77 / $80.14Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$80.3 / $89.5Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$100.63Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$82.59Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.254Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

20.0 / 23.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-80.0Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-120.4Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

42.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-0.04%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.61xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $94.12, invalidation $83.44

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

16.7 / 14.4 / 20.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$72.86Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$90.19 / $93.91Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

20%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

41.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.254Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

20.0 / 23.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-80.0Range
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-120.4Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$4.6 (5.41%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 10.85%

14%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$96.77 / $80.14Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$80.3 / $89.5Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

42.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-0.04%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.61xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$100.63Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$82.59Range

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