US stock / ETF

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

ORLY · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish64%
Monthly Downside probability 64%Bearish

ORLY 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: EMA8/21/50 are in bullish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $89.58 and stabilize above resistance $108.72.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $108.72 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBullish
Constructive Trend

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 48.8, MACD -2.509

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $9.79 (11.4%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Bullish
EMA 8$90.43Bearish
EMA 21$89.58Bearish
EMA 50$76.96Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 48.8 · MACD -2.509

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $9.79 · BB 23.68%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 32.4 · OBV -13.94%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$60.97 - $108.72

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+38.08% · 3.3 ATR above latest close

$118.5
Nearest resistance

+26.68% · 2.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$108.72
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$85.82
Nearest support

-28.96% · 2.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$60.97
Deeper support zone

-40.36% · 3.5 ATR below latest close

$51.18
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$76.03 - $95.61

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $100.63, invalidation $82.59

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.6 / 9.8 / 18.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$57.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$91.63 / $73.69Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

12%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.79 (11.4%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 23.68%

12%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$109.21 / $70.57Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$76.03 / $95.61Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$108.72Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$60.97Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.8Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.509Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

12.4 / 20.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-87.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-127.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

32.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-13.94%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.35xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $100.63, invalidation $82.59

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.6 / 9.8 / 18.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$57.96Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$91.63 / $73.69Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

12%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

48.8Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.509Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

12.4 / 20.4Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-87.6Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-127.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.79 (11.4%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 23.68%

12%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$109.21 / $70.57Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$76.03 / $95.61Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

32.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-13.94%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.35xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$108.72Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$60.97Range

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