US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish92%
4h Downside probability 92%Bearish

MSTR 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $121.67 and stabilize above resistance $146.07.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $146.07 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 30.3, MACD -0.445

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $3.42 (2.99%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$117.24Bearish
EMA 21$121.67Bearish
EMA 50$128.17Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 30.3 · MACD -0.445

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.42 · BB 14.21%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 34.0 · OBV -7.35%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$112.32 - $146.07

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+30.7% · 10.3 ATR above latest close

$149.49
Nearest resistance

+27.72% · 9.3 ATR above · 34-bar high

$146.07
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$114.37
Nearest support

-1.79% · 0.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$112.32
Deeper support zone

-4.78% · 1.6 ATR below latest close

$108.9
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$110.95 - $117.79

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $112.32, invalidation $123.76

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

48.1 / 12.0 / 41.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$105.02Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$120.1 / $129.2Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

12%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.42 (2.99%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 14.21%

7%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$127.82 / $114.93Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$110.95 / $117.79Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$146.07Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$112.32Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

30.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.445Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

14.6 / 16.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-151.0Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-7.35%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.04xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $112.32, invalidation $123.76

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

48.1 / 12.0 / 41.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$105.02Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$120.1 / $129.2Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

12%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

30.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.445Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

14.6 / 16.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-151.0Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.42 (2.99%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 14.21%

7%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$127.82 / $114.93Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$110.95 / $117.79Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-7.35%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

2.04xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$146.07Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$112.32Range

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