US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish80%
4h Downside probability 80%Bearish

MSTR 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

4h: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $132.79 and stabilize above resistance $145.88.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $145.88 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 47.6, MACD -0.805

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $3.9 (2.98%)

4h

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$131.77Bearish
EMA 21$132.79Bearish
EMA 50$129.27Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 47.6 · MACD -0.805

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $3.9 · BB 14.46%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 25.9 · OBV -19.43%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$121.08 - $145.88

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+14.34% · 4.8 ATR above latest close

$149.78
Nearest resistance

+11.36% · 3.8 ATR above · 34-bar high

$145.88
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$131
Nearest support

-7.57% · 2.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$121.08
Deeper support zone

-10.55% · 3.5 ATR below latest close

$117.18
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$127.1 - $134.9

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $126.91, invalidation $137.89

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.2 / 24.6 / 24.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$120.12Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$133.13 / $132.17Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

23%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.9 (2.98%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 14.46%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$140.1 / $125.5Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$127.1 / $134.9Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$145.88Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$121.08Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.805Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.1 / 38.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-69.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

25.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-19.43%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.45xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $126.91, invalidation $137.89

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

31.2 / 24.6 / 24.0Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$120.12Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$133.13 / $132.17Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

23%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.6Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.805Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.1 / 38.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.9Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-69.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 3Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$3.9 (2.98%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 14.46%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$140.1 / $125.5Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$127.1 / $134.9Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

25.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-19.43%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.45xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$145.88Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$121.08Range

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