US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

4 hoursBearish82%
4h Downside probability 82%Bearish

MSTR 4H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

4h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $112.58 and stabilize above resistance $136.25.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $136.25 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

4h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 24.6, MACD -1.400

4h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $4.3 (4.55%)

4h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$103.89Bearish
EMA 21$112.58Bearish
EMA 50$126.04Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 24.6 · MACD -1.400

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $4.3 · BB 36.72%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 10.3 · OBV -430.89%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$92.32 - $136.25

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+48.74% · 10.7 ATR above latest close

$140.55
Nearest resistance

+44.2% · 9.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$136.25
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$94.49
Nearest support

-2.3% · 0.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$92.32
Deeper support zone

-6.85% · 1.5 ATR below latest close

$88.02
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$90.19 - $98.79

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $107.85, invalidation $119.12

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

24.3 / 15.8 / 57.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$80.72Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$110 / $127.16Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

5%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$4.3 (4.55%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 36.72%

1%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$121.28 / $102.79Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$90.19 / $98.79Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$136.25Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$92.32Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

24.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.400Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

6.6 / 3.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-93.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-160.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

10.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-430.89%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.80xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $107.85, invalidation $119.12

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

24.3 / 15.8 / 57.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$80.72Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$110 / $127.16Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

5%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

24.6Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.400Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

6.6 / 3.3Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-93.4Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-160.2Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$4.3 (4.55%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 36.72%

1%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$121.28 / $102.79Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$90.19 / $98.79Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

10.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-430.89%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.80xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$136.25Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$92.32Range

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