US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 dayBearish79%
Daily Downside probability 79%Bearish

MSTR 1D chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Daily: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $147.9 and stabilize above resistance $171.19.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $171.19 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Daily
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 49.4, MACD -1.724

Daily
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $9.99 (6.85%)

Daily

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$146.71Bearish
EMA 21$147.9Bearish
EMA 50$140.7Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 49.4 · MACD -1.724

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $9.99 · BB 19.64%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 41.0 · OBV -34.84%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$123.33 - $171.19

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+24.09% · 3.5 ATR above latest close

$181.18
Nearest resistance

+17.25% · 2.5 ATR above · 34-bar high

$171.19
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$146.01
Nearest support

-15.53% · 2.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$123.33
Deeper support zone

-22.38% · 3.3 ATR below latest close

$113.33
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$136.02 - $156

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $133.6, invalidation $155.69

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

22.4 / 14.5 / 27.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$115.36Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$148.52 / $131.43Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

34%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.99 (6.85%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 19.64%

32%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$169.9 / $126.1Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$136.02 / $156Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$171.19Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$123.33Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.4Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.724Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

49.5 / 39.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-50.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-43.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 4Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

41.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-34.84%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.09xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $133.6, invalidation $155.69

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

22.4 / 14.5 / 27.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$115.36Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$148.52 / $131.43Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

34%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

49.4Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.724Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

49.5 / 39.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-50.5Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-43.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 4Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.99 (6.85%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 19.64%

32%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$169.9 / $126.1Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$136.02 / $156Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

41.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-34.84%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.09xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$171.19Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$123.33Range

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