US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 dayBearish92%
Daily Downside probability 92%Bearish

MSTR 1D chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Daily: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $129.79 and stabilize above resistance $196.96.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $196.96 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Daily
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 31.8, MACD -1.286

Daily
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $9.58 (9.23%)

Daily

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$116.57Bearish
EMA 21$129.79Bearish
EMA 50$142.41Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 31.8 · MACD -1.286

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $9.58 · BB 50.07%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 27.1 · OBV -97.44%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$103.53 - $196.96

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+98.94% · 10.7 ATR above latest close

$206.54
Nearest resistance

+89.71% · 9.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$196.96
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$103.82
Nearest support

-0.28% · 0.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$103.53
Deeper support zone

-9.51% · 1.0 ATR below latest close

$93.95
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$94.24 - $113.4

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $113.46, invalidation $136.25

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

54.1 / 14.1 / 48.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$77.51Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$131.31 / $150.25Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

0%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.58 (9.23%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 50.07%

10%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$147.66 / $110.23Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$94.24 / $113.4Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$196.96Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$103.53Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

31.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.286Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

0.8 / 11.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-99.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-128.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

27.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-97.44%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.11xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $113.46, invalidation $136.25

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

54.1 / 14.1 / 48.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$77.51Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$131.31 / $150.25Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

0%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

31.8Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-1.286Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

0.8 / 11.5Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-99.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-128.1Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.58 (9.23%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 50.07%

10%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$147.66 / $110.23Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$94.24 / $113.4Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

27.1Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-97.44%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.11xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$196.96Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$103.53Range

Related Forecasts