US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish59%
Weekly Downside probability 59%Bearish

MSTR 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $122.09 and stabilize above resistance $197.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $197 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateRange
Momentum mixed

RSI 46.1, MACD 3.636

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $19.96 (16.58%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$108.19Bullish
EMA 21$122.09Bearish
EMA 50$164.33Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.1 · MACD 3.636

Neutral zone

Strength
Range
Volatility
ATR $19.96 · BB 108.26%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 34.5 · OBV 8.43%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$81.81 - $197

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Range

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+80.14% · 4.8 ATR above latest close

$216.96
Nearest resistance

+63.57% · 3.8 ATR above · 34-bar high

$197
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$120.44
Nearest support

-32.07% · 1.9 ATR below · 34-bar low

$81.81
Deeper support zone

-48.65% · 2.9 ATR below latest close

$61.85
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$100.48 - $140.4

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $197, invalidation $89.21

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

25.7 / 13.9 / 26.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$70.04Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$121.24 / $223.51Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

34%Range

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$19.96 (16.58%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 108.26%

45%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$154.24 / $87.09Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$100.48 / $140.4Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$197Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$81.81Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

3.636Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

45.3 / 32.6Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-54.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-16.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

8.43%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.14xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $197, invalidation $89.21

uptrend · HH/HLBullish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

25.7 / 13.9 / 26.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$70.04Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$121.24 / $223.51Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

34%Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

3.636Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

45.3 / 32.6Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-54.7Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-16.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$19.96 (16.58%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 108.26%

45%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$154.24 / $87.09Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$100.48 / $140.4Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

8.43%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.14xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$197Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$81.81Range

Related Forecasts