US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish82%
Weekly Downside probability 82%Bearish

MSTR 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $150.4 and stabilize above resistance $270.29.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $270.29 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 31.7, MACD -0.201

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $22.99 (22.15%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$131.33Bearish
EMA 21$150.4Bearish
EMA 50$192.38Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 31.7 · MACD -0.201

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $22.99 · BB 66.43%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 34.0 · OBV -22.30%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$103.53 - $270.29

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+182.49% · 8.2 ATR above latest close

$293.28
Nearest resistance

+160.34% · 7.2 ATR above · 34-bar high

$270.29
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$103.82
Nearest support

-0.28% · 0.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$103.53
Deeper support zone

-22.43% · 1.0 ATR below latest close

$80.54
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$80.83 - $126.81

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $196.96, invalidation $116.42

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

16.2 / 23.9 / 26.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$42.24Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$150.25 / $280.35Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

0%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$22.99 (22.15%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 66.43%

10%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$194.02 / $103.67Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$80.83 / $126.81Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$270.29Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$103.53Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

31.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.201Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

0.3 / 6.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-99.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-123.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-22.30%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.30xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $196.96, invalidation $116.42

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

16.2 / 23.9 / 26.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$42.24Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$150.25 / $280.35Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

0%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

31.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.201Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

0.3 / 6.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-99.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-123.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 6Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$22.99 (22.15%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 66.43%

10%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$194.02 / $103.67Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$80.83 / $126.81Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

34.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-22.30%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.30xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$270.29Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$103.53Range

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