US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish87%
Weekly Downside probability 87%Bearish

MSTR 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $135.78 and stabilize above resistance $198.4.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $198.4 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 35.0, MACD -2.213

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $24.39 (24.96%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$111.15Bearish
EMA 21$135.78Bearish
EMA 50$180.9Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 35.0 · MACD -2.213

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $24.39 · BB 88.43%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 41.0 · OBV -17.49%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$81.81 - $198.4

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+128.03% · 5.1 ATR above latest close

$222.79
Nearest resistance

+103.07% · 4.1 ATR above · 34-bar high

$198.4
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$97.7
Nearest support

-16.26% · 0.7 ATR below · 34-bar low

$81.81
Deeper support zone

-41.22% · 1.7 ATR below latest close

$57.42
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$73.31 - $122.09

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $197, invalidation $81.81

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.3 / 21.3 / 26.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$25.09Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$132.46 / $259.41Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.39 (24.96%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 88.43%

18%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$180.36 / $87.68Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$73.31 / $122.09Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$198.4Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$81.81Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

35.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.213Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.8 / 13.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-117.7Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

41.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-17.49%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.11xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $197, invalidation $81.81

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is moderate

14.3 / 21.3 / 26.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$25.09Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$132.46 / $259.41Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

14%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

35.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.213Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

13.8 / 13.8Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-86.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-117.7Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 9Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$24.39 (24.96%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 88.43%

18%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$180.36 / $87.68Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$73.31 / $122.09Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

41.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-17.49%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.11xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$198.4Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$81.81Range

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