US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 weekBearish59%
Weekly Downside probability 59%Bearish

MSTR 1W chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Weekly: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $133.25 and stabilize above resistance $197.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $197 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

Weekly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 42.4, MACD 1.260

Weekly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $20.85 (18.23%)

Weekly

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$132.45Bearish
EMA 21$133.25Bearish
EMA 50$156.03Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 42.4 · MACD 1.260

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $20.85 · BB 77.00%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 54.5 · OBV 46.10%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Range
Price Levels
$81.81 - $197

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+90.41% · 5.0 ATR above latest close

$217.85
Nearest resistance

+72.19% · 4.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$197
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$114.41
Nearest support

-28.49% · 1.6 ATR below · 34-bar low

$81.81
Deeper support zone

-46.72% · 2.6 ATR below latest close

$60.96
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$93.56 - $135.26

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $171.19, invalidation $89.21

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

44.3 / 25.6 / 15.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$56.6Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$134.13 / $147.82Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

36%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$20.85 (18.23%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 77.00%

40%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$174.81 / $91.14Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$93.56 / $135.26Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$197Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$81.81Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.4Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

1.260Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

28.6 / 42.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-71.4Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-19.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.5Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

46.10%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.71xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $171.19, invalidation $89.21

range · mixedRange
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

44.3 / 25.6 / 15.2Bullish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$56.6Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$134.13 / $147.82Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

36%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

42.4Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is positive

1.260Bullish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

28.6 / 42.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-71.4Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-19.0Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$20.85 (18.23%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 77.00%

40%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$174.81 / $91.14Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$93.56 / $135.26Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is neutral

54.5Range
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

46.10%Bullish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.71xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$197Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$81.81Range

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