US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 hourBearish92%
1h Downside probability 92%Bearish

MSTR 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $117.41 and stabilize above resistance $123.76.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $123.76 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 36.7, MACD -0.035

1h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Low volatility

ATR is $1.96 (1.71%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$115.7Bearish
EMA 21$117.41Bearish
EMA 50$120.51Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 36.7 · MACD -0.035

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $1.96 · BB 10.05%

Low volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 25.7 · OBV -6.43%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$112.32 - $123.76

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+9.92% · 5.8 ATR above latest close

$125.72
Nearest resistance

+8.21% · 4.8 ATR above · 34-bar high

$123.76
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$114.37
Nearest support

-1.79% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$112.32
Deeper support zone

-3.5% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$110.36
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$112.41 - $116.33

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $112.32, invalidation $119.65

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

45.8 / 20.8 / 42.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$108.9Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$117.01 / $120.12Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.96 (1.71%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 10.05%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$120.89 / $113.68Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$112.41 / $116.33Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$123.76Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$112.32Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.035Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

23.9 / 29.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-76.1Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-84.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

25.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.43%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

3.63xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $112.32, invalidation $119.65

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

45.8 / 20.8 / 42.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$108.9Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$117.01 / $120.12Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

19%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

36.7Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.035Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

23.9 / 29.9Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-76.1Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-84.9Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Low volatility

$1.96 (1.71%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 10.05%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$120.89 / $113.68Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$112.41 / $116.33Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

25.7Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-6.43%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

3.63xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$123.76Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$112.32Range

Related Forecasts