US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 hourBearish86%
1h Downside probability 86%Bearish

MSTR 1H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
----

Market View

Market Shift

1h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $102.73 and stabilize above resistance $122.7.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $122.7 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

1h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 27.4, MACD -0.644

1h
Volatility EnvironmentRange
Medium volatility

ATR is $2.19 (2.31%)

1h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$97.27Bearish
EMA 21$102.73Bearish
EMA 50$110.12Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 27.4 · MACD -0.644

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $2.19 · BB 21.05%

Medium volatility

Strength
Range
Volume
MFI 27.0 · OBV -19.57%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$92.32 - $122.7

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+32.17% · 13.9 ATR above latest close

$124.89
Nearest resistance

+29.86% · 12.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$122.7
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$94.49
Nearest support

-2.3% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$92.32
Deeper support zone

-4.61% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

$90.13
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$92.3 - $96.68

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $92.32, invalidation $107.65

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

50.7 / 8.7 / 45.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$88.03Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$102.23 / $113.53Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

11%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$2.19 (2.31%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 21.05%

10%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$107.12 / $97.64Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$92.3 / $96.68Range

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$122.7Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$92.32Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

27.4Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.644Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

14.2 / 13.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-121.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

27.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-19.57%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.81xBullish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $92.32, invalidation $107.65

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

50.7 / 8.7 / 45.8Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$88.03Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$102.23 / $113.53Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

11%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

27.4Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-0.644Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

14.2 / 13.8Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-121.5Bearish
TD Sequential

Exhaustion setup is near completion

buy 13Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

Medium volatility

$2.19 (2.31%)Range
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 21.05%

10%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$107.12 / $97.64Range
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$92.3 / $96.68Range

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

27.0Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-19.57%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.81xBullish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$122.7Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$92.32Range

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