US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish84%
Monthly Downside probability 84%Bearish

MSTR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $177.98 and stabilize above resistance $543.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $543 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 47.7, MACD -13.476

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $56.48 (35.3%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$147.25Bullish
EMA 21$177.98Bearish
EMA 50$159.97Bullish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 47.7 · MACD -13.476

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $56.48 · BB 193.38%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 35.8 · OBV -73.61%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$43.87 - $543

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+274.65% · 7.8 ATR above latest close

$599.48
Nearest resistance

+239.35% · 6.8 ATR above · 34-bar high

$543
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$160.01
Nearest support

-72.58% · 2.1 ATR below · 34-bar low

$43.87
Deeper support zone

-107.88% · 3.1 ATR below latest close

-$12.61
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$103.53 - $216.49

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.2 / 14.6 / 35.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$22.7Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$225.9 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

21%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$56.48 (35.3%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 193.38%

35%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$269.61 / $84.68Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$103.53 / $216.49Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$43.87Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-13.476Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.6 / 20.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.4Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-44.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

35.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-73.61%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.17xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.2 / 14.6 / 35.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$22.7Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$225.9 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

21%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

47.7Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-13.476Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

27.6 / 20.4Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-72.4Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-44.8Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$56.48 (35.3%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 193.38%

35%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$269.61 / $84.68Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$103.53 / $216.49Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

35.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-73.61%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.17xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$43.87Range

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