US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish90%
Monthly Downside probability 90%Bearish

MSTR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $181.83 and stabilize above resistance $543.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $543 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 43.0, MACD -24.126

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $62.87 (52.2%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$139.38Bearish
EMA 21$181.83Bearish
EMA 50$159.98Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 43.0 · MACD -24.126

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $62.87 · BB 183.37%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 33.8 · OBV -93.28%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$41.24 - $543

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+403.05% · 7.7 ATR above latest close

$605.87
Nearest resistance

+350.85% · 6.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$543
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$120.44
Nearest support

-65.76% · 1.3 ATR below · 34-bar low

$41.24
Deeper support zone

-117.96% · 2.3 ATR below latest close

-$21.63
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$57.57 - $183.31

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

41.2 / 13.4 / 37.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$51.81Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$226.25 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

10%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$62.87 (52.2%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 183.37%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$287.02 / $75.03Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$57.57 / $183.31Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$41.24Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-24.126Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

10.3 / 4.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-89.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-87.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

33.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-93.28%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.87xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

41.2 / 13.4 / 37.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$51.81Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$226.25 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

10%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-24.126Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

10.3 / 4.9Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-89.7Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-87.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 3Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$62.87 (52.2%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 183.37%

23%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$287.02 / $75.03Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$57.57 / $183.31Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

33.8Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-93.28%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.87xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$41.24Range

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