US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish91%
Monthly Downside probability 91%Bearish

MSTR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $199.05 and stabilize above resistance $542.8.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $542.8 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 40.1, MACD -27.372

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $66.06 (63.63%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$163.33Bearish
EMA 21$199.05Bearish
EMA 50$162.21Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 40.1 · MACD -27.372

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $66.06 · BB 157.55%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 42.5 · OBV -110.65%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$30.82 - $542.8

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+486.46% · 7.6 ATR above latest close

$608.86
Nearest resistance

+422.83% · 6.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$542.8
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$103.82
Nearest support

-70.31% · 1.1 ATR below · 34-bar low

$30.82
Deeper support zone

-133.95% · 2.1 ATR below latest close

-$35.24
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$37.76 - $169.88

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $104.18, invalidation $457.17

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

43.2 / 15.7 / 33.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$61.14Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$278.04 / $278.03Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

0%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$66.06 (63.63%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 157.55%

12%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$325.52 / $72.43Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$37.76 / $169.88Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$542.8Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$30.82Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-27.372Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

0.1 / 11.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-99.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-107.9Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

42.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-110.65%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.05xRange

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $104.18, invalidation $457.17

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

43.2 / 15.7 / 33.5Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$61.14Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$278.04 / $278.03Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

0%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-27.372Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

0.1 / 11.0Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-99.9Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-107.9Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 1Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$66.06 (63.63%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 157.55%

12%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$325.52 / $72.43Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$37.76 / $169.88Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

42.5Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-110.65%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

1.05xRange

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$542.8Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$30.82Range

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