US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish87%
Monthly Downside probability 87%Bearish

MSTR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $176.71 and stabilize above resistance $543.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $543 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 46.1, MACD -14.365

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $57.84 (39.6%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$144.15Bullish
EMA 21$176.71Bearish
EMA 50$159.42Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 46.1 · MACD -14.365

Neutral zone

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $57.84 · BB 194.80%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 38.3 · OBV -85.44%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$43.87 - $543

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+311.34% · 7.9 ATR above latest close

$600.84
Nearest resistance

+271.74% · 6.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$543
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$146.07
Nearest support

-69.97% · 1.8 ATR below · 34-bar low

$43.87
Deeper support zone

-109.57% · 2.8 ATR below latest close

-$13.97
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$88.23 - $203.91

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.2 / 14.3 / 35.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$7.47Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$225.9 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$57.84 (39.6%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 194.80%

32%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$272.09 / $79.54Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$88.23 / $203.91Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$43.87Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-14.365Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

22.7 / 18.7Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-77.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-51.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-85.44%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.80xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

38.2 / 14.3 / 35.1Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$7.47Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$225.9 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

17%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Neutral zone

46.1Range
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-14.365Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

22.7 / 18.7Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Neutral zone

-77.3Range
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-51.7Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 1Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$57.84 (39.6%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 194.80%

32%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$272.09 / $79.54Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$88.23 / $203.91Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

38.3Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-85.44%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.80xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$43.87Range

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