US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish90%
Monthly Downside probability 90%Bearish

MSTR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $177.77 and stabilize above resistance $543.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $543 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 44.3, MACD -19.695

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $59.7 (45.58%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$138.68Bearish
EMA 21$177.77Bearish
EMA 50$159.1Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 44.3 · MACD -19.695

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $59.7 · BB 190.45%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 28.6 · OBV -80.80%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$43.87 - $543

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+360.18% · 7.9 ATR above latest close

$602.7
Nearest resistance

+314.6% · 6.9 ATR above · 34-bar high

$543
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$130.97
Nearest support

-66.5% · 1.5 ATR below · 34-bar low

$43.87
Deeper support zone

-112.08% · 2.5 ATR below latest close

-$15.83
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$71.27 - $190.67

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

39.9 / 10.7 / 39.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$6.5Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$225.9 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

13%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$59.7 (45.58%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 190.45%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$269.94 / $83.74Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$71.27 / $190.67Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$43.87Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-19.695Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

14.8 / 10.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-67.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-80.80%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.50xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

39.9 / 10.7 / 39.6Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$6.5Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$225.9 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

13%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

44.3Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-19.695Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

14.8 / 10.0Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-85.2Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-67.4Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 4Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$59.7 (45.58%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 190.45%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$269.94 / $83.74Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$71.27 / $190.67Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

28.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-80.80%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.50xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$43.87Range

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