US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish91%
Monthly Downside probability 91%Bearish

MSTR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $188.37 and stabilize above resistance $543.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $543 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 40.1, MACD -27.466

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $63.98 (65.49%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$145.78Bearish
EMA 21$188.37Bearish
EMA 50$161.77Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 40.1 · MACD -27.466

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $63.98 · BB 171.80%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 37.6 · OBV -112.13%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$30.71 - $543

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+521.27% · 8.0 ATR above latest close

$606.98
Nearest resistance

+455.78% · 7.0 ATR above · 34-bar high

$543
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$97.7
Nearest support

-68.57% · 1.0 ATR below · 34-bar low

$30.71
Deeper support zone

-134.06% · 2.0 ATR below latest close

-$33.27
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$33.72 - $161.68

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $104.17, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

42.5 / 11.0 / 37.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$87.3Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$244.25 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

4%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$63.98 (65.49%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 171.80%

15%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$309.46 / $66.19Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$33.72 / $161.68Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$30.71Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-27.466Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

4.2 / 7.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-95.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-108.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-112.13%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.42xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $104.17, invalidation $197

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

42.5 / 11.0 / 37.0Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$87.3Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$244.25 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

4%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

40.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-27.466Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

4.2 / 7.1Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-95.8Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-108.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 2Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$63.98 (65.49%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 171.80%

15%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$309.46 / $66.19Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$33.72 / $161.68Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

37.6Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-112.13%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.42xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$30.71Range

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