US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

1 monthBearish92%
Monthly Downside probability 92%Bearish

MSTR 1M chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

Monthly: price is below EMA21, short trend is weak

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $169.76 and stabilize above resistance $543.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $543 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseRange
Sideways Structure

Price is below EMA21

Monthly
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 43.0, MACD -13.695

Monthly
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $56.23 (49.15%)

Monthly

EMA Structure

Range
EMA 8$134.85Bearish
EMA 21$169.76Bearish
EMA 50$157.07Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 43.0 · MACD -13.695

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $56.23 · BB 206.90%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 35.4 · OBV -93.57%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$46.75 - $543

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+423.76% · 8.6 ATR above latest close

$599.23
Nearest resistance

+374.61% · 7.6 ATR above · 34-bar high

$543
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$114.41
Nearest support

-59.14% · 1.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$46.75
Deeper support zone

-108.28% · 2.2 ATR below latest close

-$9.48
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$58.18 - $170.64

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $171.19

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.2 / 14.7 / 33.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$12.95Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$225.9 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

9%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$56.23 (49.15%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 206.90%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$263.39 / $73.86Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$58.18 / $170.64Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$46.75Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-13.695Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

11.5 / 16.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-88.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-63.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

35.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-93.57%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.38xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $81.81, invalidation $171.19

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

37.2 / 14.7 / 33.3Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

-$12.95Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$225.9 / $278.13Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

9%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

43.0Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-13.695Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

11.5 / 16.7Bearish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-88.5Bullish
CCI (20)

Balanced zone

-63.5Range
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

sell 2Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$56.23 (49.15%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 206.90%

28%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$263.39 / $73.86Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$58.18 / $170.64Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

35.4Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-93.57%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.38xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$543Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$46.75Range

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