US stock / ETF

Strategy

MSTR · NASDAQ · USD

12 hoursBearish88%
12h Downside probability 88%Bearish

MSTR 12H chart

EMA21EMA50Bollinger
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Market View

Market Shift

12h: EMA8/21/50 are in bearish alignment

Confirmation Trigger

Recover $126.1 and stabilize above resistance $196.96.

Invalidation Trigger

Break above $196.96 with RSI back above 50.

Market Context

Trend PhaseBearish
Weak Pullback

Price is below EMA21

12h
Momentum StateBearish
Momentum soft

RSI 27.1, MACD -2.094

12h
Volatility EnvironmentBearish
High volatility

ATR is $9.57 (10.13%)

12h

EMA Structure

Bearish
EMA 8$110.76Bearish
EMA 21$126.1Bearish
EMA 50$140.17Bearish

Signals

CategoryReadStrength
Momentum
RSI 27.1 · MACD -2.094

Momentum is weak

Strength
Bearish
Volatility
ATR $9.57 · BB 52.70%

High volatility

Strength
Bearish
Volume
MFI 26.9 · OBV -219.83%

Relative to 20-period average volume

Strength
Bearish
Price Levels
$92.32 - $196.96

Support/Resistance Distance

Strength
Bearish

Key Levels

Upper risk zone

+118.57% · 11.7 ATR above latest close

$206.53
Nearest resistance

+108.45% · 10.7 ATR above · 34-bar high

$196.96
Current price

Price shown is delayed

$94.49
Nearest support

-2.3% · 0.2 ATR below · 34-bar low

$92.32
Deeper support zone

-12.43% · 1.2 ATR below latest close

$82.75
ATR zone

Latest close ± ATR14

$84.92 - $104.06

Indicators

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $113.46, invalidation $136.25

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

55.6 / 14.7 / 44.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$69.41Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$123.52 / $144.64Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

3%Bearish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.57 (10.13%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 52.70%

2%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$143.83 / $106.48Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$84.92 / $104.06Bearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$196.96Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$92.32Range

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

27.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.094Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

5.0 / 3.7Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-95.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-160.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

26.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-219.83%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.84xBearish

Trend

Dow Theory Structure

Confirmation $113.46, invalidation $136.25

downtrend · LH/LLBearish
ADX / +DI / -DI (14)

Trend strength is active

55.6 / 14.7 / 44.9Bearish
Supertrend (10,3)

Price is above Supertrend

$69.41Bullish
Ichimoku Cloud

Cloud Span A / Span B

$123.52 / $144.64Bearish
Donchian Channel (20)

20-period breakout channel position

3%Bearish

Momentum

RSI (14)

Momentum is weak

27.1Bearish
MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram is negative

-2.094Bearish
Stochastic %K / %D (14,3,3)

%K / %D momentum cross

5.0 / 3.7Bullish
Williams %R (14)

Oversold zone

-95.0Bullish
CCI (20)

Weak expansion

-160.8Bearish
TD Sequential

Setup is not extreme

buy 5Bullish

Volatility

ATR (14)

High volatility

$9.57 (10.13%)Bearish
Bollinger Bands (20,2)

Width 52.70%

2%Bearish
Keltner Channel upper / lower

ATR channel lower / upper

$143.83 / $106.48Bearish
ATR channel lower / upper

Current Volatility Envelope

$84.92 / $104.06Bearish

Volume / Money Flow

MFI (14)

Money flow is weak

26.9Bearish
OBV slope

20-period OBV slope

-219.83%Bearish
Volume ratio

Relative to 20-period average volume

0.84xBearish

Levels / Risk

Resistance

Nearest Upside Decision Level

$196.96Range
Support

Nearest Downside Decision Level

$92.32Range

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